bayesRatings

Tigers at Angels

MLB · Friday, Jul 17 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final DET 2 – LAA 1
← MLB / Jul 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET000000002260
LAA100000000150
Team box
DET·LAA
6
hits
5
0
home runs
0
1
walks
4
12
strikeouts
14
137
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hao-Yu LeeDET1-4002
Matt VierlingDET2-4000
Zach NetoLAA2-4100
Riley GreeneDET1-3100
Dillon DinglerDET1-3000
Ben MalgeriDET1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Troy MeltonDET5.24149
Keider Montero (W)DET3.11005
Reid DetmersLAA6.04007
Kirby Yates (L)LAA0.21210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
DET +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 1 · DET 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Jul 17

Expected margin
DET by 0.9
Expected score
DET 5.0 – 4.1 LAA
Expected total
9.2
TigersThe matchupAngels
−122Our fair odds+122
5.0Expected runs4.1
+0.02Power rating−0.24
4.2Runs / game4.4
4.0Allowed / game5.0
7.8Hits / game8.1
1.20Home runs / game1.13
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
44−52Season record38−59
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · LAA chance
Our model fair54.9%45.1%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−12255%−11653.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12245%−10751.8%———
SpreadDET by 0.9
DETDetroit Tigers−0.9our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.9 expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byLAA wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more44%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETTroy Melton SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 0.51 ERA, 22 Kstarted
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·LAA
Jul 12 vs PHI
last game
Jul 12 at MIN
4 days
days of rest
4 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 96+ games
DET·LAA
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.24
4.2
runs / game
4.4
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.0
44−52
season record
38−59
27−23
home record
21−25
17−29
away record
17−34
L2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
2−8
7.8
hits / game
8.1
1.20
home runs / game
1.13
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.46
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

DET · LAA · 111 days
Detroit TigersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
May 28at DETLAA 7 − 1
May 27at DETDET 4 − 0
May 26at DETLAA 10 − 6
Aug 10, 2025at DETDET 9 − 5
Aug 9, 2025at DETLAA 7 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at DETDET 6 − 5
May 4, 2025at LAADET 13 − 1
May 3, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 2
May 2, 2025at LAADET 9 − 1
May 1, 2025at LAADET 10 − 4

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Jul 12vs PHI0 − 5L
Jul 11vs PHI2 − 4L
Jul 10vs PHI10 − 2W
Jul 9vs ATH4 − 1W
Jul 8vs ATH6 − 1W
Jul 7vs ATH6 − 2W
Jul 5at TEX6 − 3W
Jul 4at TEX3 − 0W
Jul 2at TEX4 − 10L
Jul 1at NYY6 − 2W

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Jul 12at MIN2 − 4L
Jul 11at MIN3 − 5L
Jul 10at MIN4 − 3W
Jul 9at TEX6 − 7L
Jul 8at TEX13 − 1W
Jul 7at TEX3 − 8L
Jul 5vs BOS5 − 7L
Jul 4vs BOS1 − 8L
Jul 3vs BOS2 − 5L
Jul 2at SEA0 − 1L