bayesRatings

Cardinals at Diamondbacks

MLB · Friday, Jul 17 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final STL 5 – ARI 4
← MLB / Jul 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL200010011580
ARI011000020482
Team box
STL·ARI
8
hits
8
1
home runs
2
5
walks
3
5
strikeouts
8
142
pitches thrown
159
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corbin CarrollARI1-4112
Tim TawaARI2-4111
JJ WetherholtSTL2-4111
Masyn WinnSTL1-2003
Gabriel MorenoARI2-4100
Max KeplerARI1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael McGreevySTL6.16115
Luis Gastelum (W)STL1.01211
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.01011
Merrill KellyARI5.04123
Paul Sewald (L)ARI0.11010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · STL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 49%, ARI 51% · Updated Jul 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.6 – 4.5 STL
Expected total
9.1
CardinalsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+106Our fair odds−106
4.5Expected runs4.6
+0.01Power rating+0.01
4.5Runs / game4.3
4.5Allowed / game4.5
8.1Hits / game7.9
1.13Home runs / game0.93
3.2Walks drawn / game3.2
50−45Season record49−47
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · ARI chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10649%−10350.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10651%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.1our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 13%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more37%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more27%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 1.47 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·ARI
Jul 12 vs ATL
last game
Jul 12 at LAD
4 days
days of rest
4 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 95+ games
STL·ARI
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.5
runs / game
4.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
50−45
season record
49−47
26−26
home record
27−20
24−19
away record
22−27
L1
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
7.9
1.13
home runs / game
0.93
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.48
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

STL · ARI · 111 days
St. Louis CardinalsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Jun 24at STLARI 9 − 4
Jun 23at STLARI 4 − 3
Jun 22at STLSTL 3 − 2
Jul 20, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 3
Jul 19, 2025at ARIARI 10 − 1
Jul 18, 2025at ARIARI 7 − 3
May 25, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 3
May 24, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5
May 23, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 3
Apr 24, 2024at STLSTL 5 − 1

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 12vs ATL3 − 4L
Jul 11vs ATL4 − 1W
Jul 10vs ATL2 − 1W
Jul 9vs MIL4 − 8L
Jul 8vs MIL5 − 1W
Jul 7vs MIL2 − 10L
Jul 7vs MIL3 − 4L
Jul 6vs MIL3 − 4L
Jul 5at CHC4 − 6L
Jul 4at CHC3 − 0W

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jul 12at LAD5 − 3W
Jul 11at LAD9 − 2W
Jul 10at LAD9 − 3W
Jul 9at SD3 − 1W
Jul 8at SD4 − 10L
Jul 7at SD1 − 4L
Jul 6at SD8 − 0W
Jul 5vs MIL2 − 3L
Jul 4vs MIL4 − 3W
Jul 3vs MIL4 − 7L