bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, Jul 12 · 3:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final ARI 5 – LAD 3
← MLB / Jul 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000022001550
LAD102000000332
Team box
ARI·LAD
5
hits
3
1
home runs
1
3
walks
5
9
strikeouts
6
139
pitches thrown
161
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-4211
Tim TawaARI1-4111
Ildemaro VargasARI2-4101
Tommy EdmanLAD1-4002
Nolan ArenadoARI1-4101
Gabriel MorenoARI1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch BrattARI3.03330
Ryan Thompson (W)ARI1.00001
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00001
Emmet SheehanLAD5.13217
Edgardo Henriquez (L)LAD0.21010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 3 · ARI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 40%, LAD 60% · Updated Jul 12

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 5.0 – 4.0 ARI
Expected total
9.1
DiamondbacksThe matchupDodgers
+149Our fair odds−149
4.0Expected runs5.0
+0.01Power rating+0.35
4.3Runs / game5.2
4.5Allowed / game3.7
7.9Hits / game8.9
0.93Home runs / game1.31
3.2Walks drawn / game4.0
48−47Season record61−35
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshi34.5%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+14940%+18934.5%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14960%−22869.5%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more44%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more34%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMitch Bratt SP · last 1 start: 3.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 3 Kstarted
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 5.68 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·LAD
Jul 11 at LAD
last game
Jul 11 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
10th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 95+ games
ARI·LAD
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.35
4.3
runs / game
5.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.7
48−47
season record
61−35
27−20
home record
31−18
21−27
away record
30−17
W3
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.9
0.93
home runs / game
1.31
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.37
errors / game
0.34

Rating Trend

ARI · LAD · 109 days
Arizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Jul 11at LADARI 9 − 2
Jul 10at LADARI 9 − 3
Jun 4at ARIARI 3 − 2
Jun 3at ARILAD 7 − 0
Jun 2at ARILAD 6 − 5
Jun 1at ARIARI 4 − 1
Mar 28at LADLAD 3 − 2
Mar 27at LADLAD 5 − 4
Mar 26at LADLAD 8 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at ARILAD 8 − 0

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jul 11at LAD9 − 2W
Jul 10at LAD9 − 3W
Jul 9at SD3 − 1W
Jul 8at SD4 − 10L
Jul 7at SD1 − 4L
Jul 6at SD8 − 0W
Jul 5vs MIL2 − 3L
Jul 4vs MIL4 − 3W
Jul 3vs MIL4 − 7L
Jul 1vs SF4 − 6L

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jul 11vs ARI2 − 9L
Jul 10vs ARI3 − 9L
Jul 8vs COL4 − 3W
Jul 7vs COL3 − 4L
Jul 6vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 5vs SD2 − 5L
Jul 4vs SD3 − 0W
Jul 3vs SD4 − 3W
Jul 2vs SD12 − 7W
Jul 1at ATH1 − 7L