bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Dodgers

MLB · Saturday, Jul 11 · 8:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final ARI 9 – LAD 2
← MLB / Jul 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000105120990
LAD000002000261
Team box
ARI·LAD
9
hits
6
3
home runs
0
6
walks
0
8
strikeouts
6
113
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
James McCannARI2-4224
Tim TawaARI3-5102
Nolan ArenadoARI1-3211
Max KeplerARI1-3002
Andy PagesLAD2-4101
Gabriel MorenoARI2-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Pfaadt (W)ARI5.16202
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (L)LAD6.05646

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +7
ARI +7
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · ARI 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 39%, LAD 61% · Updated Jul 11

Expected margin
LAD by 1.1
Expected score
LAD 5.1 – 4.0 ARI
Expected total
9.1
DiamondbacksThe matchupDodgers
+153Our fair odds−153
4.0Expected runs5.1
−0.01Power rating+0.37
4.3Runs / game5.3
4.5Allowed / game3.6
7.9Hits / game8.9
0.90Home runs / game1.33
3.1Walks drawn / game4.0
47−47Season record61−34
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · LAD chance
Our model fair39.4%60.6%
Kalshi28.4%75.3%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+15339%+25228.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15361%−30675.3%———
SpreadLAD by 1.1
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+1.1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.1 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more35%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIBrandon Pfaadt SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 14 Kstarted
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·LAD
Jul 10 at LAD
last game
Jul 10 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 94+ games
ARI·LAD
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
4.3
runs / game
5.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.6
47−47
season record
61−34
27−20
home record
31−17
20−27
away record
30−17
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
8.9
0.90
home runs / game
1.33
3.1
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.37
errors / game
0.34

Rating Trend

ARI · LAD · 108 days
Arizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 7−3
Jul 10at LADARI 9 − 3
Jun 4at ARIARI 3 − 2
Jun 3at ARILAD 7 − 0
Jun 2at ARILAD 6 − 5
Jun 1at ARIARI 4 − 1
Mar 28at LADLAD 3 − 2
Mar 27at LADLAD 5 − 4
Mar 26at LADLAD 8 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at ARILAD 8 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at ARILAD 5 − 4

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 10at LAD9 − 3W
Jul 9at SD3 − 1W
Jul 8at SD4 − 10L
Jul 7at SD1 − 4L
Jul 6at SD8 − 0W
Jul 5vs MIL2 − 3L
Jul 4vs MIL4 − 3W
Jul 3vs MIL4 − 7L
Jul 1vs SF4 − 6L
Jun 30vs SF8 − 2W

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 10vs ARI3 − 9L
Jul 8vs COL4 − 3W
Jul 7vs COL3 − 4L
Jul 6vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 5vs SD2 − 5L
Jul 4vs SD3 − 0W
Jul 3vs SD4 − 3W
Jul 2vs SD12 − 7W
Jul 1at ATH1 − 7L
Jun 30at ATH9 − 3W