bayesRatings

Giants at Mariners

MLB · Friday, Jul 17 · 9:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final SF 7 – SEA 0
← MLB / Jul 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF0000214007121
SEA000000000022
Team box
SF·SEA
12
hits
2
2
home runs
0
2
walks
3
9
strikeouts
4
134
pitches thrown
161
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willy AdamesSF1-5114
Bryce EldridgeSF1-5112
Jung Hoo LeeSF3-4200
Heliot RamosSF2-5100
Casey SchmittSF2-5100
Drew CavanaughSF2-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Landen Roupp (W)SF7.02032
Bryce Miller (L)SEA5.27216

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +7
SF +7
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · SF 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 45%, SEA 55% · Updated Jul 17

Expected margin
SEA by 0.8
Expected score
SEA 4.4 – 3.6 SF
Expected total
7.9
GiantsThe matchupMariners
+121Our fair odds−121
3.6Expected runs4.4
−0.10Power rating+0.04
4.1Runs / game4.0
4.8Allowed / game3.9
8.8Hits / game7.6
1.10Home runs / game1.19
2.5Walks drawn / game3.4
41−55Season record48−49
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · SEA chance
Our model fair45.3%54.7%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12145%+15239.6%———
SEASeattle Mariners−12155%−18364.6%———
SpreadSEA by 0.8
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.8our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.8 expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 18%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 12%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more43%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more31%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 15 Kstarted
SEABryce Miller SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·SEA
Jul 12 vs COL
last game
Jul 12 at TB
4 days
days of rest
4 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 96+ games
SF·SEA
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.1
runs / game
4.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.9
41−55
season record
48−49
22−25
home record
27−20
19−30
away record
21−29
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.8
hits / game
7.6
1.10
home runs / game
1.19
2.5
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.68
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

SF · SEA · 111 days
San Francisco GiantsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 5−5
Apr 6, 2025at SFSF 5 − 4
Apr 5, 2025at SFSF 4 − 1
Apr 4, 2025at SFSF 10 − 9
Aug 25, 2024at SEASEA 4 − 3
Aug 24, 2024at SEASF 4 − 3
Aug 23, 2024at SEASEA 6 − 5
Jul 5, 2023at SFSF 2 − 0
Jul 4, 2023at SFSEA 6 − 0
Jul 3, 2023at SFSEA 6 − 5
Apr 3, 2021at SEASEA 4 − 0

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 12vs COL3 − 1W
Jul 11vs COL4 − 2W
Jul 10vs COL3 − 4L
Jul 9vs COL8 − 2W
Jul 8vs TOR0 − 10L
Jul 7vs TOR3 − 9L
Jul 6vs TOR10 − 1W
Jul 5at COL6 − 7L
Jul 4at COL6 − 4W
Jul 3at COL3 − 15L

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 12at TB8 − 2W
Jul 11at TB1 − 6L
Jul 10at TB2 − 7L
Jul 9at MIA4 − 8L
Jul 8at MIA0 − 2L
Jul 7at MIA5 − 6L
Jul 5vs TOR4 − 0W
Jul 4vs TOR11 − 0W
Jul 3vs TOR0 − 2L
Jul 2vs LAA1 − 0W