bayesRatings

Mariners at Rays

MLB · Sunday, Jul 12 · 12:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final SEA 8 – TB 2
← MLB / Jul 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA030400001890
TB000000020242
Team box
SEA·TB
9
hits
4
2
home runs
1
5
walks
4
9
strikeouts
8
148
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
J.P. CrawfordSEA3-4103
Randy ArozarenaSEA1-5113
Jonathan ArandaTB1-3112
Weston WilsonSEA1-4111
Yandy DiazTB2-4100
Victor RoblesSEA0-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emerson HancockSEA1.20012
Jose Ferrer (W)SEA1.11002
Ian Seymour (L)TB3.16533

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +7
SEA +7
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · SEA 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 47%, TB 53% · Updated Jul 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.2 – 3.8 SEA
Expected total
8.0
MarinersThe matchupRays
+114Our fair odds−114
3.8Expected runs4.2
+0.02Power rating+0.10
4.0Runs / game4.5
3.9Allowed / game4.1
7.6Hits / game8.7
1.18Home runs / game1.00
3.3Walks drawn / game3.5
47−49Season record56−37
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · TB chance
Our model fair46.7%53.3%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+11447%+12444.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11453%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners+0.4our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more39%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more28%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 17 Kstarted
TBIan Seymour SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·TB
Jul 11 at TB
last game
Jul 11 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 93+ games
SEA·TB
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.0
runs / game
4.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.1
47−49
season record
56−37
27−20
home record
35−14
20−29
away record
21−23
L5
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.7
1.18
home runs / game
1.00
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.51
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

SEA · TB · 109 days
Seattle MarinersTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Jul 11at TBTB 6 − 1
Jul 10at TBTB 7 − 2
Sep 3, 2025at TBTB 9 − 4
Sep 2, 2025at TBTB 6 − 5
Sep 1, 2025at TBTB 10 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 3
Aug 9, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2
Aug 28, 2024at SEASEA 6 − 2
Aug 27, 2024at SEATB 3 − 2

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Jul 11at TB1 − 6L
Jul 10at TB2 − 7L
Jul 9at MIA4 − 8L
Jul 8at MIA0 − 2L
Jul 7at MIA5 − 6L
Jul 5vs TOR4 − 0W
Jul 4vs TOR11 − 0W
Jul 3vs TOR0 − 2L
Jul 2vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 30vs LAA8 − 3W

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 11vs SEA6 − 1W
Jul 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jul 9vs NYY4 − 12L
Jul 8vs NYY3 − 0W
Jul 7vs NYY6 − 4W
Jul 6vs NYY1 − 5L
Jul 5at HOU0 − 2L
Jul 4at HOU8 − 10L
Jul 3at HOU3 − 1W
Jul 2at KC5 − 2W