bayesRatings

Mariners at Rays

MLB · Saturday, Jul 11 · 3:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final SEA 1 – TB 6
← MLB / Jul 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA010000000161
TB011000316120
Team box
SEA·TB
6
hits
12
0
home runs
1
4
walks
2
10
strikeouts
5
114
pitches thrown
139
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan ViladeTB1-1113
Ben WilliamsonTB4-4101
Jonathan ArandaTB3-4101
Victor RoblesSEA1-2000
Josh NaylorSEA1-4000
Randy ArozarenaSEA1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Gilbert (L)SEA6.29425
Griffin Jax (W)TB5.04133

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +5
SEA +5
123456789
largest lead: TB 5 · SEA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 47%, TB 53% · Updated Jul 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.2 – 3.9 SEA
Expected total
8.0
MarinersThe matchupRays
+112Our fair odds−112
3.9Expected runs4.2
+0.03Power rating+0.08
4.0Runs / game4.5
3.9Allowed / game4.2
7.6Hits / game8.6
1.19Home runs / game1.00
3.3Walks drawn / game3.5
47−48Season record55−37
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · TB chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+11247%−10751.8%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11253%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners+0.3our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more38%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more27%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 2.18 ERA, 22 Kstarted
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·TB
Jul 10 at TB
last game
Jul 10 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 92+ games
SEA·TB
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.0
runs / game
4.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.2
47−48
season record
55−37
27−20
home record
34−14
20−28
away record
21−23
L4
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.6
1.19
home runs / game
1.00
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.51
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

SEA · TB · 108 days
Seattle MarinersTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Jul 10at TBTB 7 − 2
Sep 3, 2025at TBTB 9 − 4
Sep 2, 2025at TBTB 6 − 5
Sep 1, 2025at TBTB 10 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 3
Aug 9, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2
Aug 28, 2024at SEASEA 6 − 2
Aug 27, 2024at SEATB 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2024at SEASEA 5 − 1

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Jul 10at TB2 − 7L
Jul 9at MIA4 − 8L
Jul 8at MIA0 − 2L
Jul 7at MIA5 − 6L
Jul 5vs TOR4 − 0W
Jul 4vs TOR11 − 0W
Jul 3vs TOR0 − 2L
Jul 2vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 30vs LAA8 − 3W
Jun 29vs LAA6 − 2W

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jul 9vs NYY4 − 12L
Jul 8vs NYY3 − 0W
Jul 7vs NYY6 − 4W
Jul 6vs NYY1 − 5L
Jul 5at HOU0 − 2L
Jul 4at HOU8 − 10L
Jul 3at HOU3 − 1W
Jul 2at KC5 − 2W
Jul 1at KC4 − 0W