bayesRatings

Mariners at Rays

MLB · Friday, Jul 10 · 6:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final SEA 2 – TB 7
← MLB / Jul 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000011000250
TB001120307140
Team box
SEA·TB
5
hits
14
1
home runs
4
1
walks
1
5
strikeouts
6
140
pitches thrown
108
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Junior CamineroTB2-4212
Victor Mesa Jr.TB3-4111
Chandler SimpsonTB3-4101
Cole YoungSEA1-3111
Cedric MullinsTB1-4111
Richie PalaciosTB1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Castillo (L)SEA5.09414
Nick Martinez (W)TB5.14211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +5
SEA +5
123456789
largest lead: TB 5 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 48%, TB 52% · Updated Jul 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.1 – 3.9 SEA
Expected total
8.0
MarinersThe matchupRays
+110Our fair odds−110
3.9Expected runs4.1
+0.04Power rating+0.07
4.1Runs / game4.5
3.8Allowed / game4.2
7.6Hits / game8.6
1.19Home runs / game0.97
3.4Walks drawn / game3.5
47−47Season record54−37
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · TB chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+11048%+10947.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11052%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners+0.2our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more37%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more26%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 12 Kstarted
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·TB
Jul 9 at MIA
last game
Jul 9 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 91+ games
SEA·TB
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.1
runs / game
4.5
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.2
47−47
season record
54−37
27−20
home record
33−14
20−27
away record
21−23
L3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.6
1.19
home runs / game
0.97
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.51
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

SEA · TB · 107 days
Seattle MarinersTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Sep 3, 2025at TBTB 9 − 4
Sep 2, 2025at TBTB 6 − 5
Sep 1, 2025at TBTB 10 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 3
Aug 9, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2
Aug 28, 2024at SEASEA 6 − 2
Aug 27, 2024at SEATB 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2024at SEASEA 5 − 1
Jun 26, 2024at TBSEA 5 − 2

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jul 9at MIA4 − 8L
Jul 8at MIA0 − 2L
Jul 7at MIA5 − 6L
Jul 5vs TOR4 − 0W
Jul 4vs TOR11 − 0W
Jul 3vs TOR0 − 2L
Jul 2vs LAA1 − 0W
Jun 30vs LAA8 − 3W
Jun 29vs LAA6 − 2W
Jun 28at CLE5 − 6L

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 9vs NYY4 − 12L
Jul 8vs NYY3 − 0W
Jul 7vs NYY6 − 4W
Jul 6vs NYY1 − 5L
Jul 5at HOU0 − 2L
Jul 4at HOU8 − 10L
Jul 3at HOU3 − 1W
Jul 2at KC5 − 2W
Jul 1at KC4 − 0W
Jun 30at KC10 − 4W