bayesRatings

Giants at Royals

MLB · Monday, Jul 20 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final SF 3 – KC 4
← MLB / Jul 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000100002360
KC000300001480
Team box
SF·KC
6
hits
8
2
home runs
1
2
walks
2
8
strikeouts
6
127
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Salvador PerezKC1-3112
Willy AdamesSF1-4112
Heliot RamosSF1-4111
Isaac CollinsKC2-3001
Lane ThomasKC2-4000
Nick LoftinKC1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor McDonaldSF4.04323
Caleb Kilian (L)SF0.11100
Michael WachaKC6.03125
Alex Lange (W)KC1.02202

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 2 · SF 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 50%, KC 50% · Updated Jul 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.6 – 4.5 KC
Expected total
9.1
GiantsThe matchupRoyals
−100Our fair odds+100
4.6Expected runs4.5
−0.09Power rating−0.15
4.1Runs / game4.3
4.7Allowed / game5.2
8.7Hits / game8.3
1.12Home runs / game1.01
2.5Walks drawn / game3.2
42−57Season record40−60
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · KC chance
Our model fair50.1%49.9%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants−10050%+10548.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+10050%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.1our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byKC wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more37%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more27%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFTrevor McDonald SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 9 Kstarted
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·KC
Jul 19 at SEA
last game
Jul 19 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 99+ games
SF·KC
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.1
runs / game
4.3
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.2
42−57
season record
40−60
22−25
home record
23−27
20−32
away record
17−33
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.3
1.12
home runs / game
1.01
2.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.69
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

SF · KC · 114 days
San Francisco GiantsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 5−5
May 21, 2025at SFKC 8 − 4
May 20, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
May 19, 2025at SFKC 3 − 1
Sep 22, 2024at KCSF 2 − 0
Sep 21, 2024at KCSF 9 − 0
Sep 20, 2024at KCSF 2 − 1
Apr 9, 2023at SFSF 3 − 1
Apr 8, 2023at SFKC 6 − 5
Apr 7, 2023at SFKC 3 − 1
Jun 15, 2022at SFKC 3 − 2

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jul 19at SEA3 − 6L
Jul 18at SEA3 − 4L
Jul 17at SEA7 − 0W
Jul 12vs COL3 − 1W
Jul 11vs COL4 − 2W
Jul 10vs COL3 − 4L
Jul 9vs COL8 − 2W
Jul 8vs TOR0 − 10L
Jul 7vs TOR3 − 9L
Jul 6vs TOR10 − 1W

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 19vs SD2 − 19L
Jul 18vs SD6 − 1W
Jul 17vs SD7 − 6W
Jul 12at BAL2 − 8L
Jul 11at BAL1 − 6L
Jul 10at BAL3 − 5L
Jul 9at NYM3 − 7L
Jul 8at NYM2 − 6L
Jul 7at NYM16 − 12W
Jul 6vs PHI15 − 1W