bayesRatings

Giants at Royals

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 21 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final SF 2 – KC 3
← MLB / Jul 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000020000250
KC00100200381
Team box
SF·KC
5
hits
8
0
home runs
1
3
walks
2
10
strikeouts
7
138
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carter JensenKC1-4111
Vinnie PasquantinoKC2-3001
Nick LoftinKC2-4001
Drew GilbertSF1-4101
Starling MarteKC1-3000
Isaac CollinsKC1-1100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Mahle (L)SF5.05314
Luinder Avila (W)KC6.15217
Alex Lange (S)KC1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 1 · SF 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 50%, KC 50% · Updated Jul 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.5 – 4.5 KC
Expected total
9.0
GiantsThe matchupRoyals
+102Our fair odds−102
4.5Expected runs4.5
−0.10Power rating−0.14
4.1Runs / game4.3
4.7Allowed / game5.2
8.7Hits / game8.3
1.13Home runs / game1.01
2.5Walks drawn / game3.2
42−58Season record41−60
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · KC chance
Our model fair49.6%50.4%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+10250%−11252.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−10250%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.1our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 12%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byKC wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more37%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more27%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 12 Kstarted
KCLuinder Avila SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·KC
Jul 20 at KC
last game
Jul 20 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 100+ games
SF·KC
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
4.1
runs / game
4.3
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.2
42−58
season record
41−60
22−25
home record
24−27
20−33
away record
17−33
L3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.3
1.13
home runs / game
1.01
2.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.68
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

SF · KC · 115 days
San Francisco GiantsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 5−5
Jul 20at KCKC 4 − 3
May 21, 2025at SFKC 8 − 4
May 20, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
May 19, 2025at SFKC 3 − 1
Sep 22, 2024at KCSF 2 − 0
Sep 21, 2024at KCSF 9 − 0
Sep 20, 2024at KCSF 2 − 1
Apr 9, 2023at SFSF 3 − 1
Apr 8, 2023at SFKC 6 − 5
Apr 7, 2023at SFKC 3 − 1

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jul 20at KC3 − 4L
Jul 19at SEA3 − 6L
Jul 18at SEA3 − 4L
Jul 17at SEA7 − 0W
Jul 12vs COL3 − 1W
Jul 11vs COL4 − 2W
Jul 10vs COL3 − 4L
Jul 9vs COL8 − 2W
Jul 8vs TOR0 − 10L
Jul 7vs TOR3 − 9L

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 20vs SF4 − 3W
Jul 19vs SD2 − 19L
Jul 18vs SD6 − 1W
Jul 17vs SD7 − 6W
Jul 12at BAL2 − 8L
Jul 11at BAL1 − 6L
Jul 10at BAL3 − 5L
Jul 9at NYM3 − 7L
Jul 8at NYM2 − 6L
Jul 7at NYM16 − 12W