bayesRatings

Cardinals at Angels

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 22 · 3:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final STL 1 – LAA 0
← MLB / Jul 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000001000130
LAA000000000070
Team box
STL·LAA
3
hits
7
1
home runs
0
3
walks
2
10
strikeouts
10
139
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
JJ WetherholtSTL1-4111
Josh LoweLAA2-4000
Wade MecklerLAA2-3000
Mike TroutLAA1-3000
Oswald PerazaLAA1-4000
Zach NetoLAA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Hunter Dobbins (W)STL6.06005
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00023
Reid Detmers (L)LAA5.12126

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · STL 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 54%, LAA 46% · Updated Jul 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.8 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
9.2
CardinalsThe matchupAngels
−117Our fair odds+117
4.8Expected runs4.4
−0.01Power rating−0.23
4.5Runs / game4.3
4.5Allowed / game4.9
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.09Home runs / game1.10
3.2Walks drawn / game3.2
51−49Season record41−61
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · LAA chance
Our model fair54.0%46.0%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11754%+11446.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11746%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.4our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byLAA wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more39%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more30%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLHunter Dobbins SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.93 ERA, 13 Kstarted
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·LAA
Jul 21 at LAA
last game
Jul 21 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 100+ games
STL·LAA
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
4.5
runs / game
4.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.9
51−49
season record
41−61
26−26
home record
24−27
25−23
away record
17−34
L4
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.09
home runs / game
1.10
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.46
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

STL · LAA · 116 days
St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 7−3
Jul 21at LAALAA 5 − 1
Jul 20at LAALAA 3 − 2
Apr 2, 2025at STLSTL 12 − 5
Apr 1, 2025at STLLAA 9 − 7
Mar 31, 2025at STLLAA 5 − 4
May 15, 2024at LAALAA 7 − 2
May 14, 2024at LAASTL 7 − 6
May 13, 2024at LAASTL 10 − 5
May 4, 2023at STLLAA 11 − 7
May 3, 2023at STLLAA 6 − 4

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jul 21at LAA1 − 5L
Jul 20at LAA2 − 3L
Jul 19at ARI7 − 8L
Jul 18at ARI3 − 5L
Jul 17at ARI5 − 4W
Jul 12vs ATL3 − 4L
Jul 11vs ATL4 − 1W
Jul 10vs ATL2 − 1W
Jul 9vs MIL4 − 8L
Jul 8vs MIL5 − 1W

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jul 21vs STL5 − 1W
Jul 20vs STL3 − 2W
Jul 19vs DET3 − 2W
Jul 18vs DET0 − 7L
Jul 17vs DET1 − 2L
Jul 12at MIN2 − 4L
Jul 11at MIN3 − 5L
Jul 10at MIN4 − 3W
Jul 9at TEX6 − 7L
Jul 8at TEX13 − 1W