bayesRatings

Brewers at Giants

MLB · Monday, Jul 27 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final MIL 0 – SF 3
← MLB / Jul 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000000000031
SF00120000360
Team box
MIL·SF
3
hits
6
0
home runs
1
2
walks
4
7
strikeouts
6
134
pitches thrown
130
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Grant McCraySF1-3112
Luis ArraezSF1-4001
Jake BauersMIL1-2000
Andrew VaughnMIL1-2000
Jackson ChourioMIL1-4000
Willy AdamesSF1-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Sproat (L)MIL6.06335
Tyler Mahle (W)SF6.03023
Erik Miller (S)SF1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 3 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 60%, SF 40% · Updated Jul 27

Expected margin
MIL by 1.4
Expected score
MIL 5.0 – 3.6 SF
Expected total
8.7
BrewersThe matchupGiants
−149Our fair odds+149
5.0Expected runs3.6
+0.35Power rating−0.10
5.1Runs / game4.2
3.7Allowed / game4.7
8.7Hits / game8.6
0.93Home runs / game1.12
4.1Walks drawn / game2.5
66−39Season record44−61
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · SF chance
Our model fair59.8%40.2%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14960%−14258.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+14940%+11945.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.4
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.4our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.4 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins bySF wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·SF
Jul 26 vs COL
last game
Jul 26 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 105+ games
MIL·SF
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
5.1
runs / game
4.2
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.7
66−39
season record
44−61
36−20
home record
24−26
30−19
away record
20−35
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.6
0.93
home runs / game
1.12
4.1
walks drawn / game
2.5
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.41
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

MIL · SF · 121 days
Milwaukee BrewersSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 6−4
Jun 4at MILSF 12 − 9
Jun 3at MILSF 1 − 0
Jun 2at MILMIL 8 − 3
Jun 1at MILMIL 16 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at MILSF 4 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at MILSF 7 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 4
Apr 24, 2025at SFSF 6 − 5
Apr 23, 2025at SFSF 4 − 2
Apr 22, 2025at SFMIL 11 − 3

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jul 26vs COL11 − 2W
Jul 25vs COL8 − 5W
Jul 24vs COL2 − 5L
Jul 22vs NYM4 − 3W
Jul 21vs NYM0 − 4L
Jul 20vs NYM8 − 3W
Jul 19vs MIA3 − 1W
Jul 18vs MIA8 − 6W
Jul 17vs MIA2 − 1W
Jul 12at PIT5 − 14L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 26vs LAA3 − 4L
Jul 25vs LAA9 − 2W
Jul 24vs LAA7 − 6W
Jul 22at KC4 − 5L
Jul 21at KC2 − 3L
Jul 20at KC3 − 4L
Jul 19at SEA3 − 6L
Jul 18at SEA3 − 4L
Jul 17at SEA7 − 0W
Jul 12vs COL3 − 1W