bayesRatings

Angels at Giants

MLB · Sunday, Jul 26 · 3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final LAA 4 – SF 3
← MLB / Jul 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA100300000471
SF000010002362
Team box
LAA·SF
7
hits
6
2
home runs
0
3
walks
6
9
strikeouts
10
155
pitches thrown
131
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jorge SolerLAA1-4112
Jo AdellLAA1-4112
Mike TroutLAA4-4100
Luis ArraezSF2-5002
Drew CavanaughSF2-2100
Denzer GuzmanLAA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose Soriano (W)LAA5.03035
Mitch Farris (S)LAA0.21001
Carson Whisenhunt (L)SF5.05427

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +4
LAA +4
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · LAA 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 45%, SF 55% · Updated Jul 26

Expected margin
SF by 0.7
Expected score
SF 4.8 – 4.1 LAA
Expected total
8.9
AngelsThe matchupGiants
+124Our fair odds−124
4.1Expected runs4.8
−0.26Power rating−0.09
4.3Runs / game4.2
4.9Allowed / game4.7
8.1Hits / game8.6
1.08Home runs / game1.13
3.2Walks drawn / game2.5
41−64Season record44−60
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · SF chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+12445%−12655.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−12455%+10548.7%———
SpreadSF by 0.7
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.7our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco Giants by 0.7 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 13%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more42%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more32%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SFCarson Whisenhunt SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·SF
Jul 25 at SF
last game
Jul 25 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 104+ games
LAA·SF
−0.26
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.3
runs / game
4.2
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.7
41−64
season record
44−60
24−28
home record
24−25
17−36
away record
20−35
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.6
1.08
home runs / game
1.13
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.5
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.58
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

LAA · SF · 120 days
Los Angeles AngelsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 4−6
Jul 25at SFSF 9 − 2
Jul 24at SFSF 7 − 6
Apr 20, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 4
Apr 19, 2025at LAASF 3 − 2
Apr 18, 2025at LAALAA 2 − 0
Jun 16, 2024at SFSF 13 − 6
Jun 15, 2024at SFLAA 4 − 3
Jun 14, 2024at SFLAA 8 − 6
Aug 9, 2023at LAALAA 4 − 1
Aug 8, 2023at LAALAA 7 − 5

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jul 25at SF2 − 9L
Jul 24at SF6 − 7L
Jul 22vs STL0 − 1L
Jul 21vs STL5 − 1W
Jul 20vs STL3 − 2W
Jul 19vs DET3 − 2W
Jul 18vs DET0 − 7L
Jul 17vs DET1 − 2L
Jul 12at MIN2 − 4L
Jul 11at MIN3 − 5L

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 25vs LAA9 − 2W
Jul 24vs LAA7 − 6W
Jul 22at KC4 − 5L
Jul 21at KC2 − 3L
Jul 20at KC3 − 4L
Jul 19at SEA3 − 6L
Jul 18at SEA3 − 4L
Jul 17at SEA7 − 0W
Jul 12vs COL3 − 1W
Jul 11vs COL4 − 2W