bayesRatings

Mariners at Rangers

MLB · Monday, Jul 27 · 1:35 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final SEA 3 – TEX 7
← MLB / Jul 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA011000001370
TEX133000007110
Team box
SEA·TEX
7
hits
11
1
home runs
4
3
walks
1
9
strikeouts
10
123
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joc PedersonTEX2-4224
Jake BurgerTEX1-4112
Ezequiel DuranTEX2-4111
Randy ArozarenaSEA1-4111
Julio RodriguezSEA1-3001
Brandon NimmoTEX2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
George Kirby (L)SEA4.07703
Kumar Rocker (W)TEX6.24227

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +5
SEA +5
123456789
largest lead: TEX 5 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 50%, TEX 50% · Updated Jul 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.0 – 4.0 SEA
Expected total
8.1
MarinersThe matchupRangers
+102Our fair odds−102
4.0Expected runs4.0
+0.02Power rating−0.02
4.0Runs / game4.2
3.9Allowed / game4.5
7.6Hits / game8.3
1.16Home runs / game1.14
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
52−54Season record53−52
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · TEX chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi56.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+10250%−13156.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10250%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle MarinersPKour margin————
TEXTexas RangersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 14%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more35%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more25%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 20 Kstarted
TEXKumar Rocker SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·TEX
Jul 26 at TEX
last game
Jul 26 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 105+ games
SEA·TEX
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.0
runs / game
4.2
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
52−54
season record
53−52
30−23
home record
27−25
22−31
away record
26−27
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
8.3
1.16
home runs / game
1.14
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.50
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

SEA · TEX · 121 days
Seattle MarinersTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 6−4
Jul 26at TEXSEA 6 − 4
Jul 25at TEXTEX 7 − 1
Jul 24at TEXTEX 5 − 4
Apr 19at SEASEA 5 − 2
Apr 18at SEASEA 7 − 3
Apr 17at SEATEX 5 − 0
Apr 8at TEXTEX 3 − 0
Apr 7at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Apr 6at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 4

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 26at TEX6 − 4W
Jul 25at TEX1 − 7L
Jul 24at TEX4 − 5L
Jul 22vs CIN3 − 5L
Jul 21vs CIN2 − 4L
Jul 20vs CIN8 − 0W
Jul 19vs SF6 − 3W
Jul 18vs SF4 − 3W
Jul 17vs SF0 − 7L
Jul 12at TB8 − 2W

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 26vs SEA4 − 6L
Jul 25vs SEA7 − 1W
Jul 24vs SEA5 − 4W
Jul 22vs CHW2 − 4L
Jul 21vs CHW10 − 0W
Jul 20vs CHW3 − 10L
Jul 19at ATL5 − 8L
Jul 18at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 17at ATL1 − 15L
Jul 12vs HOU6 − 5W