bayesRatings

Reds at Mariners

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 22 · 2:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final CIN 5 – SEA 3
← MLB / Jul 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000200300580
SEA010200000370
Team box
CIN·SEA
8
hits
7
2
home runs
0
2
walks
1
5
strikeouts
6
138
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sal StewartCIN1-4113
JJ BledayCIN1-4111
Dane MyersCIN2-4001
Luke RaleySEA1-4002
Edwin ArroyoCIN2-3100
Josh NaylorSEA2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady Singer (W)CIN6.26316
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.00000
Emerson HancockSEA6.05213
Eduard Bazardo (L)SEA1.02310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 1 · CIN 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 46%, SEA 54% · Updated Jul 22

Expected margin
SEA by 0.9
Expected score
SEA 4.4 – 3.5 CIN
Expected total
7.9
RedsThe matchupMariners
+118Our fair odds−118
3.5Expected runs4.4
−0.07Power rating+0.04
4.2Runs / game4.0
4.8Allowed / game3.9
7.7Hits / game7.6
1.32Home runs / game1.19
3.6Walks drawn / game3.4
46−54Season record51−51
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · SEA chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11846%+14041.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−11854%−16862.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.9
CINCincinnati Reds+0.9our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.9 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 18%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 12%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more44%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more32%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 17 Kstarted
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 0.63 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·SEA
Jul 21 at SEA
last game
Jul 21 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 100+ games
CIN·SEA
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.9
46−54
season record
51−51
22−28
home record
30−22
24−26
away record
21−29
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
7.6
1.32
home runs / game
1.19
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.53
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

CIN · SEA · 116 days
Cincinnati RedsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 7−3
Jul 21at SEACIN 4 − 2
Jul 20at SEASEA 8 − 0
Apr 17, 2025at CINSEA 11 − 7
Apr 16, 2025at CINSEA 5 − 3
Apr 15, 2025at CINCIN 8 − 4
Apr 17, 2024at SEASEA 5 − 1
Apr 16, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 1
Apr 15, 2024at SEASEA 9 − 3
Sep 6, 2023at CINSEA 8 − 4
Sep 5, 2023at CINCIN 7 − 6

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 21at SEA4 − 2W
Jul 20at SEA0 − 8L
Jul 19at COL9 − 6W
Jul 18at COL3 − 10L
Jul 17at COL7 − 2W
Jul 12vs CHC4 − 8L
Jul 11vs CHC3 − 5L
Jul 10vs CHC4 − 0W
Jul 9vs PHI0 − 1L
Jul 8vs PHI11 − 5W

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 21vs CIN2 − 4L
Jul 20vs CIN8 − 0W
Jul 19vs SF6 − 3W
Jul 18vs SF4 − 3W
Jul 17vs SF0 − 7L
Jul 12at TB8 − 2W
Jul 11at TB1 − 6L
Jul 10at TB2 − 7L
Jul 9at MIA4 − 8L
Jul 8at MIA0 − 2L