bayesRatings

Reds at Mariners

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 21 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final CIN 4 – SEA 2
← MLB / Jul 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN100110001450
SEA000000110261
Team box
CIN·SEA
5
hits
6
3
home runs
2
3
walks
6
4
strikeouts
9
180
pitches thrown
126
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-4111
Nathaniel LoweCIN1-4111
Elly De La CruzCIN1-3111
Weston WilsonSEA1-4111
Julio RodriguezSEA1-2111
Josh NaylorSEA3-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase Burns (W)CIN5.03026
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.00001
Luis Castillo (L)SEA7.04323

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · CIN 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 46%, SEA 54% · Updated Jul 21

Expected margin
SEA by 0.9
Expected score
SEA 4.5 – 3.5 CIN
Expected total
8.0
RedsThe matchupMariners
+119Our fair odds−119
3.5Expected runs4.5
−0.07Power rating+0.04
4.2Runs / game4.1
4.9Allowed / game3.9
7.7Hits / game7.6
1.30Home runs / game1.18
3.6Walks drawn / game3.3
45−54Season record51−50
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · SEA chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11946%−10350.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−11954%−11653.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.9
CINCincinnati Reds+0.9our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.9 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 18%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 12%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more44%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more32%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 16 Kstarted
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·SEA
Jul 20 at SEA
last game
Jul 20 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 99+ games
CIN·SEA
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.1
4.9
runs allowed / game
3.9
45−54
season record
51−50
22−28
home record
30−21
23−26
away record
21−29
L1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
7.6
1.30
home runs / game
1.18
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.54
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

CIN · SEA · 115 days
Cincinnati RedsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 7−3
Jul 20at SEASEA 8 − 0
Apr 17, 2025at CINSEA 11 − 7
Apr 16, 2025at CINSEA 5 − 3
Apr 15, 2025at CINCIN 8 − 4
Apr 17, 2024at SEASEA 5 − 1
Apr 16, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 1
Apr 15, 2024at SEASEA 9 − 3
Sep 6, 2023at CINSEA 8 − 4
Sep 5, 2023at CINCIN 7 − 6
Sep 4, 2023at CINCIN 6 − 3

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 20at SEA0 − 8L
Jul 19at COL9 − 6W
Jul 18at COL3 − 10L
Jul 17at COL7 − 2W
Jul 12vs CHC4 − 8L
Jul 11vs CHC3 − 5L
Jul 10vs CHC4 − 0W
Jul 9vs PHI0 − 1L
Jul 8vs PHI11 − 5W
Jul 7vs PHI1 − 4L

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Jul 20vs CIN8 − 0W
Jul 19vs SF6 − 3W
Jul 18vs SF4 − 3W
Jul 17vs SF0 − 7L
Jul 12at TB8 − 2W
Jul 11at TB1 − 6L
Jul 10at TB2 − 7L
Jul 9at MIA4 − 8L
Jul 8at MIA0 − 2L
Jul 7at MIA5 − 6L