bayesRatings

White Sox at Rangers

MLB · Monday, Jul 20 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final CHW 10 – TEX 3
← MLB / Jul 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW00104000510130
TEX110000100370
Team box
CHW·TEX
13
hits
7
0
home runs
2
5
walks
2
8
strikeouts
14
153
pitches thrown
195
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel VargasCHW3-5202
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-3003
Joc PedersonTEX1-3111
Jake BurgerTEX1-3111
Luisangel AcunaCHW1-1102
Sam AntonacciCHW2-3201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Erick FeddeCHW4.04206
Chris Murphy (W)CHW1.10001
Jacob deGrom (L)TEX4.27526

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +7
CHW +7
123456789
largest lead: TEX 2 · CHW 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 49%, TEX 51% · Updated Jul 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.2 – 4.1 TEX
Expected total
8.3
White SoxThe matchupRangers
+105Our fair odds−105
4.2Expected runs4.1
−0.02Power rating−0.02
4.8Runs / game4.2
4.3Allowed / game4.5
8.0Hits / game8.2
1.34Home runs / game1.13
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
52−46Season record50−49
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · TEX chance
Our model fair48.7%51.3%
Kalshi41.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10549%+14041.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10551%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox−0.1our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 12%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 17%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byTEX wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more37%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more26%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWErick Fedde SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 4.85 ERA, 7 Kstarted
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·TEX
Jul 19 at TOR
last game
Jul 19 at ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 98+ games
CHW·TEX
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.8
runs / game
4.2
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
52−46
season record
50−49
31−17
home record
24−22
21−29
away record
26−27
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
8.2
1.34
home runs / game
1.13
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.49
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

CHW · TEX · 114 days
Chicago White SoxTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 8−2
Jun 15, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Jun 14, 2025at TEXTEX 5 − 4
Jun 13, 2025at TEXTEX 3 − 1
May 25, 2025at CHWTEX 5 − 4
May 24, 2025at CHWCHW 10 − 5
May 23, 2025at CHWCHW 4 − 1
Aug 29, 2024at CHWTEX 2 − 1
Aug 28, 2024at CHWTEX 4 − 3
Aug 27, 2024at CHWTEX 3 − 1
Jul 25, 2024at TEXTEX 2 − 1

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 19at TOR3 − 0W
Jul 18at TOR0 − 1L
Jul 17at TOR12 − 4W
Jul 12vs ATH9 − 1W
Jul 11vs ATH1 − 0W
Jul 10vs ATH14 − 1W
Jul 9vs BOS1 − 2L
Jul 8vs BOS0 − 5L
Jul 7vs BOS1 − 8L
Jul 5at CLE7 − 6W

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 19at ATL5 − 8L
Jul 18at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 17at ATL1 − 15L
Jul 12vs HOU6 − 5W
Jul 11vs HOU3 − 9L
Jul 10vs HOU7 − 3W
Jul 9vs LAA7 − 6W
Jul 8vs LAA1 − 13L
Jul 7vs LAA8 − 3W
Jul 5vs DET3 − 6L