bayesRatings

White Sox at Blue Jays

MLB · Saturday, Jul 18 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final CHW 0 – TOR 1
← MLB / Jul 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW000000000040
TOR00010000150
Team box
CHW·TOR
4
hits
5
0
home runs
0
3
walks
3
10
strikeouts
6
108
pitches thrown
114
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
George SpringerTOR1-4001
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR2-3100
Miguel VargasCHW1-4000
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-3000
Braden MontgomeryCHW1-3000
Chase MeidrothCHW1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Davis Martin (L)CHW5.24125
Shane Bieber (W)TOR6.03026
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
CHW +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 1 · CHW 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 48%, TOR 52% · Updated Jul 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.5 – 4.4 TOR
Expected total
8.9
White SoxThe matchupBlue Jays
+108Our fair odds−108
4.5Expected runs4.4
−0.02Power rating+0.01
4.9Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game4.5
8.1Hits / game8.2
1.35Home runs / game1.04
3.4Walks drawn / game2.8
51−45Season record45−52
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · TOR chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10848%−10751.8%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10852%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox−0.1our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 17%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byTOR wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more37%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more27%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 5 Kstarted
TORShane Bieber SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.07 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·TOR
Jul 17 at TOR
last game
Jul 17 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 96+ games
CHW·TOR
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.9
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.5
51−45
season record
45−52
31−17
home record
24−26
20−28
away record
21−26
W4
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.2
1.35
home runs / game
1.04
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.8
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.50
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

CHW · TOR · 112 days
Chicago White SoxToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 3−7
Jul 17at TORCHW 12 − 4
Apr 5at CHWCHW 3 − 0
Apr 4at CHWCHW 6 − 3
Apr 3at CHWCHW 5 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at CHWCHW 2 − 1
Jul 8, 2025at CHWTOR 6 − 1
Jul 7, 2025at CHWTOR 8 − 4
Jun 22, 2025at TORCHW 4 − 2
Jun 21, 2025at TORTOR 7 − 1
Jun 20, 2025at TORCHW 7 − 1

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jul 17at TOR12 − 4W
Jul 12vs ATH9 − 1W
Jul 11vs ATH1 − 0W
Jul 10vs ATH14 − 1W
Jul 9vs BOS1 − 2L
Jul 8vs BOS0 − 5L
Jul 7vs BOS1 − 8L
Jul 5at CLE7 − 6W
Jul 4at CLE3 − 1W
Jul 3at CLE3 − 4L

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jul 17vs CHW4 − 12L
Jul 12at SD4 − 5L
Jul 11at SD7 − 8L
Jul 10at SD5 − 3W
Jul 8at SF10 − 0W
Jul 7at SF9 − 3W
Jul 6at SF1 − 10L
Jul 5at SEA0 − 4L
Jul 4at SEA0 − 11L
Jul 3at SEA2 − 0W