bayesRatings

White Sox at Blue Jays

MLB · Friday, Jul 17 · 6:15 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final CHW 12 – TOR 4
← MLB / Jul 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW05003040012120
TOR001111000471
Team box
CHW·TOR
12
hits
7
1
home runs
3
3
walks
4
8
strikeouts
9
175
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sam AntonacciCHW2-5212
Colson MontgomeryCHW2-4203
Braden MontgomeryCHW1-5204
George SpringerTOR1-4112
Luis UriasTOR1-4111
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Anthony KayCHW4.02235
Tyler Schweitzer (W)CHW3.01013
Spencer Miles (L)TOR4.06604

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +8
CHW +8
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · CHW 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 47%, TOR 53% · Updated Jul 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.4 – 4.4 CHW
Expected total
8.8
White SoxThe matchupBlue Jays
+112Our fair odds−112
4.4Expected runs4.4
−0.03Power rating+0.02
4.8Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game4.4
8.0Hits / game8.2
1.36Home runs / game1.02
3.4Walks drawn / game2.8
50−45Season record45−51
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · TOR chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+11247%+11446.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11253%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White SoxPKour margin————
TORToronto Blue JaysPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 17%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more35%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more26%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 4.15 ERA, 8 Kstarted
TORSpencer Miles RP · last 3 starts: 10.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·TOR
Jul 12 vs ATH
last game
Jul 12 at SD
4 days
days of rest
4 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 95+ games
CHW·TOR
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.8
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
50−45
season record
45−51
31−17
home record
24−25
19−28
away record
21−26
W3
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
8.2
1.36
home runs / game
1.02
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.8
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.51
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

CHW · TOR · 111 days
Chicago White SoxToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
Apr 5at CHWCHW 3 − 0
Apr 4at CHWCHW 6 − 3
Apr 3at CHWCHW 5 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at CHWCHW 2 − 1
Jul 8, 2025at CHWTOR 6 − 1
Jul 7, 2025at CHWTOR 8 − 4
Jun 22, 2025at TORCHW 4 − 2
Jun 21, 2025at TORTOR 7 − 1
Jun 20, 2025at TORCHW 7 − 1
May 29, 2024at CHWTOR 3 − 1

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jul 12vs ATH9 − 1W
Jul 11vs ATH1 − 0W
Jul 10vs ATH14 − 1W
Jul 9vs BOS1 − 2L
Jul 8vs BOS0 − 5L
Jul 7vs BOS1 − 8L
Jul 5at CLE7 − 6W
Jul 4at CLE3 − 1W
Jul 3at CLE3 − 4L
Jul 2at CLE5 − 6L

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jul 12at SD4 − 5L
Jul 11at SD7 − 8L
Jul 10at SD5 − 3W
Jul 8at SF10 − 0W
Jul 7at SF9 − 3W
Jul 6at SF1 − 10L
Jul 5at SEA0 − 4L
Jul 4at SEA0 − 11L
Jul 3at SEA2 − 0W
Jul 1vs NYM9 − 3W