bayesRatings

Mariners at Rangers

MLB · Friday, Jul 24 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final SEA 4 – TEX 5
← MLB / Jul 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA0100200014100
TEX100202005100
Team box
SEA·TEX
10
hits
10
0
home runs
2
2
walks
1
9
strikeouts
4
130
pitches thrown
151
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BurgerTEX2-4113
Wyatt LangfordTEX1-4111
Dominic CanzoneSEA1-4002
Cole YoungSEA3-4000
Weston WilsonSEA1-2001
Colt EmersonSEA2-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce Miller (L)SEA5.16510
MacKenzie GoreTEX5.07325
Peyton Gray (W)TEX1.01002
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.01101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 2 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 50%, TEX 50% · Updated Jul 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.0 – 4.0 SEA
Expected total
8.1
MarinersThe matchupRangers
+101Our fair odds−101
4.0Expected runs4.0
+0.03Power rating−0.02
4.0Runs / game4.2
3.9Allowed / game4.5
7.6Hits / game8.2
1.17Home runs / game1.15
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
51−52Season record51−51
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · TEX chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+10150%−11653.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10150%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle MarinersPKour margin————
TEXTexas RangersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more35%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more25%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryce Miller SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 17 Kstarted
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.98 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·TEX
Jul 22 vs CIN
last game
Jul 22 vs CHW
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 102+ games
SEA·TEX
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.0
runs / game
4.2
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
51−52
season record
51−51
30−23
home record
25−24
21−29
away record
26−27
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
8.2
1.17
home runs / game
1.15
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.51
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

SEA · TEX · 118 days
Seattle MarinersTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 5−5
Apr 19at SEASEA 5 − 2
Apr 18at SEASEA 7 − 3
Apr 17at SEATEX 5 − 0
Apr 8at TEXTEX 3 − 0
Apr 7at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Apr 6at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at SEATEX 6 − 4
Aug 1, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Jul 31, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 0

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 22vs CIN3 − 5L
Jul 21vs CIN2 − 4L
Jul 20vs CIN8 − 0W
Jul 19vs SF6 − 3W
Jul 18vs SF4 − 3W
Jul 17vs SF0 − 7L
Jul 12at TB8 − 2W
Jul 11at TB1 − 6L
Jul 10at TB2 − 7L
Jul 9at MIA4 − 8L

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 22vs CHW2 − 4L
Jul 21vs CHW10 − 0W
Jul 20vs CHW3 − 10L
Jul 19at ATL5 − 8L
Jul 18at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 17at ATL1 − 15L
Jul 12vs HOU6 − 5W
Jul 11vs HOU3 − 9L
Jul 10vs HOU7 − 3W
Jul 9vs LAA7 − 6W