bayesRatings

White Sox at Rangers

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 22 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final CHW 4 – TEX 2
← MLB / Jul 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW010201000472
TEX010100000250
Team box
CHW·TEX
7
hits
5
0
home runs
1
4
walks
2
7
strikeouts
12
138
pitches thrown
151
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Chase MeidrothCHW4-4002
Andrew BenintendiCHW2-4002
Cam CauleyTEX1-3111
Braden MontgomeryCHW1-3300
Brandon NimmoTEX1-4100
Ezequiel DuranTEX1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Anthony Kay (W)CHW5.05224
Bryan Hudson (S)CHW1.00002
Tyler AlexanderTEX2.01111
Cal Quantrill (L)TEX3.02231

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
CHW +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · CHW 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 48%, TEX 52% · Updated Jul 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 4.2 CHW
Expected total
8.4
White SoxThe matchupRangers
+106Our fair odds−106
4.2Expected runs4.2
−0.02Power rating−0.02
4.8Runs / game4.2
4.4Allowed / game4.5
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.31Home runs / game1.15
3.4Walks drawn / game3.2
53−47Season record51−50
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · TEX chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10648%−12655.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10652%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White SoxPKour margin————
TEXTexas RangersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 13%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more35%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more25%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TEXTyler Alexander RP · last 3 starts: 3.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·TEX
Jul 21 at TEX
last game
Jul 21 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 100+ games
CHW·TEX
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.8
runs / game
4.2
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.5
53−47
season record
51−50
31−17
home record
25−23
22−30
away record
26−27
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.31
home runs / game
1.15
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.48
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

CHW · TEX · 116 days
Chicago White SoxTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 7−3
Jul 21at TEXTEX 10 − 0
Jul 20at TEXCHW 10 − 3
Jun 15, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Jun 14, 2025at TEXTEX 5 − 4
Jun 13, 2025at TEXTEX 3 − 1
May 25, 2025at CHWTEX 5 − 4
May 24, 2025at CHWCHW 10 − 5
May 23, 2025at CHWCHW 4 − 1
Aug 29, 2024at CHWTEX 2 − 1
Aug 28, 2024at CHWTEX 4 − 3

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 21at TEX0 − 10L
Jul 20at TEX10 − 3W
Jul 19at TOR3 − 0W
Jul 18at TOR0 − 1L
Jul 17at TOR12 − 4W
Jul 12vs ATH9 − 1W
Jul 11vs ATH1 − 0W
Jul 10vs ATH14 − 1W
Jul 9vs BOS1 − 2L
Jul 8vs BOS0 − 5L

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 21vs CHW10 − 0W
Jul 20vs CHW3 − 10L
Jul 19at ATL5 − 8L
Jul 18at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 17at ATL1 − 15L
Jul 12vs HOU6 − 5W
Jul 11vs HOU3 − 9L
Jul 10vs HOU7 − 3W
Jul 9vs LAA7 − 6W
Jul 8vs LAA1 − 13L