bayesRatings

Rangers at Rays

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 28 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final TEX 4 – TB 1
← MLB / Jul 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX011000110471
TB000001000151
Team box
TEX·TB
7
hits
5
1
home runs
0
4
walks
1
13
strikeouts
9
114
pitches thrown
157
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Austin WynnsTEX1-3111
Junior CamineroTB2-4001
Evan CarterTEX2-3101
Jonathan ArandaTB2-4000
Ezequiel DuranTEX1-2101
Ben WilliamsonTB1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cal Quantrill (W)TEX5.12117
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.00000
Griffin Jax (L)TB5.251310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · TEX 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 46%, TB 54% · Updated Jul 28

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 4.4 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
8.2
RangersThe matchupRays
+118Our fair odds−118
3.8Expected runs4.4
−0.01Power rating+0.10
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game4.1
8.3Hits / game8.7
1.17Home runs / game1.00
3.2Walks drawn / game3.4
54−52Season record62−43
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · TB chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+11846%+14640.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11854%−17563.6%———
SpreadTB by 0.6
TEXTexas Rangers+0.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.6 expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXCal Quantrill RP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 6 Kstarted
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·TB
Jul 27 vs SEA
last game
Jul 26 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 105+ games
TEX·TB
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
54−52
season record
62−43
28−25
home record
38−15
26−27
away record
24−28
W1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
8.7
1.17
home runs / game
1.00
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.42
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

TEX · TB · 122 days
Texas RangersTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 3−7
Jun 5, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Jun 4, 2025at TBTB 5 − 4
Jun 3, 2025at TBTB 5 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 5, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at TEXTEX 5 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at TEXTEX 13 − 2
Jul 6, 2024at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Jul 5, 2024at TEXTEX 3 − 0
Apr 3, 2024at TBTEX 4 − 1

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 27vs SEA7 − 3W
Jul 26vs SEA4 − 6L
Jul 25vs SEA7 − 1W
Jul 24vs SEA5 − 4W
Jul 22vs CHW2 − 4L
Jul 21vs CHW10 − 0W
Jul 20vs CHW3 − 10L
Jul 19at ATL5 − 8L
Jul 18at ATL7 − 6W
Jul 17at ATL1 − 15L

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jul 26vs CLE1 − 0W
Jul 25vs CLE3 − 0W
Jul 24vs CLE11 − 3W
Jul 23at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 22at TOR4 − 2W
Jul 21at TOR12 − 2W
Jul 20at TOR7 − 1W
Jul 19at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 18at BOS6 − 7L
Jul 17at BOS3 − 5L