bayesRatings

Guardians at Rays

MLB · Friday, Jul 24 · 6:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final CLE 3 – TB 11
← MLB / Jul 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000100002371
TB0203011411150
Team box
CLE·TB
7
hits
15
1
home runs
2
2
walks
4
7
strikeouts
10
168
pitches thrown
124
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick FortesTB4-4102
Austin HedgesCLE2-3112
Richie PalaciosTB1-2113
Ryan ViladeTB1-2112
Brayan RocchioCLE2-4001
Chandler SimpsonTB2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joey Cantillo (L)CLE3.28514
Shane McClanahan (W)TB5.02123
Chris Roycroft (S)TB3.04202

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +10
CLE +10
123456789
largest lead: TB 10 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 47%, TB 53% · Updated Jul 24

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 4.3 – 3.7 CLE
Expected total
8.0
GuardiansThe matchupRays
+111Our fair odds−111
3.7Expected runs4.3
+0.02Power rating+0.07
4.0Runs / game4.5
4.1Allowed / game4.2
7.7Hits / game8.7
0.99Home runs / game1.01
3.6Walks drawn / game3.4
54−50Season record59−43
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · TB chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+11147%+11446.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11153%−14258.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.6
CLECleveland Guardians+0.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.6 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 18%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 12%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 23 Kstarted
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·TB
Jul 23 vs MIN
last game
Jul 23 at TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
8
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 102+ games
CLE·TB
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.0
runs / game
4.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.2
54−50
season record
59−43
27−26
home record
35−15
27−24
away record
24−28
L2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
8.7
0.99
home runs / game
1.01
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.53
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

CLE · TB · 118 days
Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Apr 29at CLECLE 3 − 1
Apr 28at CLETB 1 − 0
Apr 27at CLETB 3 − 2
Sep 7, 2025at TBCLE 2 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at TBCLE 3 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at TBCLE 7 − 1
Sep 4, 2025at TBTB 4 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 0
Aug 25, 2025at CLETB 9 − 0

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jul 23vs MIN1 − 3L
Jul 22vs MIN6 − 10L
Jul 21vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 20vs MIN13 − 4W
Jul 19vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 18vs PIT5 − 3W
Jul 18vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 12at MIA5 − 2W
Jul 11at MIA4 − 1W
Jul 10at MIA3 − 2W

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 23at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 22at TOR4 − 2W
Jul 21at TOR12 − 2W
Jul 20at TOR7 − 1W
Jul 19at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 18at BOS6 − 7L
Jul 17at BOS3 − 5L
Jul 17at BOS0 − 10L
Jul 12vs SEA2 − 8L
Jul 11vs SEA6 − 1W