bayesRatings

Twins at Guardians

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 22 · 5:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final MIN 10 – CLE 6
← MLB / Jul 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN10240003010110
CLE1201000116133
Team box
MIN·CLE
11
hits
13
2
home runs
1
4
walks
3
9
strikeouts
5
180
pitches thrown
159
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brooks LeeMIN2-5114
Kyle ManzardoCLE3-5212
Trevor LarnachMIN2-4213
Jose RamirezCLE2-5102
Brayan RocchioCLE2-5101
Steven KwanCLE3-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bailey OberMIN4.08412
Travis Adams (W)MIN2.01000
Slade Cecconi (L)CLE4.27335

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +6
MIN +6
123456789
largest lead: CLE 2 · MIN 6lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 45%, CLE 55% · Updated Jul 22

Expected margin
CLE by 0.7
Expected score
CLE 4.3 – 3.6 MIN
Expected total
7.9
TwinsThe matchupGuardians
+122Our fair odds−122
3.6Expected runs4.3
−0.10Power rating+0.04
4.8Runs / game4.0
5.1Allowed / game4.0
8.3Hits / game7.7
1.22Home runs / game0.99
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
49−53Season record54−48
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair45.0%55.0%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+12245%+11945.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−12255%−14258.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.7
MINMinnesota Twins+0.7our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.7 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more41%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CLE
Jul 21 at CLE
last game
Jul 21 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 102+ games
MIN·CLE
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.8
runs / game
4.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.0
49−53
season record
54−48
26−25
home record
27−24
23−28
away record
27−24
L4
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
7.7
1.22
home runs / game
0.99
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.52
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

MIN · CLE · 116 days
Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Jul 21at CLECLE 5 − 2
Jul 20at CLECLE 13 − 4
Jul 9at MINCLE 5 − 2
Jul 8at MINMIN 6 − 5
Jul 7at MINMIN 3 − 1
May 10at CLEMIN 5 − 4
May 9at CLEMIN 2 − 1
May 8at CLECLE 6 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at MINCLE 8 − 0

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jul 21at CLE2 − 5L
Jul 20at CLE4 − 13L
Jul 19at CHC1 − 10L
Jul 18at CHC2 − 6L
Jul 17at CHC5 − 2W
Jul 12vs LAA4 − 2W
Jul 11vs LAA5 − 3W
Jul 10vs LAA3 − 4L
Jul 9vs CLE2 − 5L
Jul 8vs CLE6 − 5W

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jul 21vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 20vs MIN13 − 4W
Jul 19vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 18vs PIT5 − 3W
Jul 18vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 12at MIA5 − 2W
Jul 11at MIA4 − 1W
Jul 10at MIA3 − 2W
Jul 9at MIN5 − 2W
Jul 8at MIN5 − 6L