bayesRatings

Twins at Cubs

MLB · Saturday, Jul 18 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final MIN 2 – CHC 6
← MLB / Jul 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN010000100280
CHC122000106110
Team box
MIN·CHC
8
hits
11
2
home runs
1
1
walks
4
7
strikeouts
11
152
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kody ClemensMIN2-4222
Nico HoernerCHC4-4101
Pedro RamirezCHC2-3002
Michael BuschCHC1-4211
Miguel AmayaCHC1-4002
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Taj Bradley (L)MIN5.07536
Matthew Boyd (W)CHC6.03114

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +4
MIN +4
123456789
largest lead: CHC 4 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 44%, CHC 56% · Updated Jul 18

Expected margin
CHC by 0.6
Expected score
CHC 5.0 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.5
TwinsThe matchupCubs
+127Our fair odds−127
4.5Expected runs5.0
−0.06Power rating+0.14
4.9Runs / game5.0
5.0Allowed / game4.5
8.3Hits / game8.3
1.23Home runs / game1.25
3.3Walks drawn / game4.3
49−49Season record54−43
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CHC chance
Our model fair44.0%56.0%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+12744%+12943.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−12756%−15460.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.6
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.6 expected
Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more41%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more31%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.89 ERA, 27 Kstarted
CHCMatthew Boyd SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CHC
Jul 17 at CHC
last game
Jul 17 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 97+ games
MIN·CHC
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
4.9
runs / game
5.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
49−49
season record
54−43
26−25
home record
27−20
23−24
away record
27−23
W3
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.3
1.23
home runs / game
1.25
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.53
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

MIN · CHC · 112 days
Minnesota TwinsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 4−6
Jul 17at CHCMIN 5 − 2
Jul 10, 2025at MINCHC 8 − 1
Jul 9, 2025at MINMIN 4 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at MINMIN 8 − 1
Aug 7, 2024at CHCCHC 8 − 2
Aug 6, 2024at CHCCHC 7 − 3
Aug 5, 2024at CHCMIN 3 − 0
May 14, 2023at MINMIN 16 − 3
May 13, 2023at MINMIN 11 − 1
May 12, 2023at MINCHC 6 − 2

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jul 17at CHC5 − 2W
Jul 12vs LAA4 − 2W
Jul 11vs LAA5 − 3W
Jul 10vs LAA3 − 4L
Jul 9vs CLE2 − 5L
Jul 8vs CLE6 − 5W
Jul 7vs CLE3 − 1W
Jul 5at NYY6 − 1W
Jul 4at NYY11 − 4W
Jul 3at NYY2 − 5L

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 17vs MIN2 − 5L
Jul 12at CIN8 − 4W
Jul 11at CIN5 − 3W
Jul 10at CIN0 − 4L
Jul 9at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 8at BAL9 − 7W
Jul 7at BAL5 − 2W
Jul 5vs STL6 − 4W
Jul 4vs STL0 − 3L
Jul 3vs STL1 − 17L