bayesRatings

Twins at Cubs

MLB · Friday, Jul 17 · 7:05 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final MIN 5 – CHC 2
← MLB / Jul 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN004000100571
CHC100001000261
Team box
MIN·CHC
7
hits
6
1
home runs
0
3
walks
4
10
strikeouts
9
151
pitches thrown
142
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan JeffersMIN1-4113
Nico HoernerCHC2-4000
Michael BuschCHC1-4001
Trevor LarnachMIN1-3101
Ryan KreidlerMIN1-2001
Luke KeaschallMIN2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bailey Ober (W)MIN5.15227
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN1.00011
Colin Rea (L)CHC6.05316

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 1 · MIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 43%, CHC 57% · Updated Jul 17

Expected margin
CHC by 0.7
Expected score
CHC 5.1 – 4.4 MIN
Expected total
9.5
TwinsThe matchupCubs
+132Our fair odds−132
4.4Expected runs5.1
−0.07Power rating+0.15
4.9Runs / game5.0
5.0Allowed / game4.5
8.4Hits / game8.3
1.24Home runs / game1.26
3.3Walks drawn / game4.3
48−49Season record54−42
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CHC chance
Our model fair43.2%56.8%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+13243%+12943.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13257%−15460.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.7
MINMinnesota Twins+0.7our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.7 expected
Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more42%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more32%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CHCColin Rea SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CHC
Jul 12 vs LAA
last game
Jul 12 at CIN
4 days
days of rest
4 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 96+ games
MIN·CHC
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
4.9
runs / game
5.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
48−49
season record
54−42
26−25
home record
27−19
22−24
away record
27−23
W2
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.3
1.24
home runs / game
1.26
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.53
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

MIN · CHC · 111 days
Minnesota TwinsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 4−6
Jul 10, 2025at MINCHC 8 − 1
Jul 9, 2025at MINMIN 4 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at MINMIN 8 − 1
Aug 7, 2024at CHCCHC 8 − 2
Aug 6, 2024at CHCCHC 7 − 3
Aug 5, 2024at CHCMIN 3 − 0
May 14, 2023at MINMIN 16 − 3
May 13, 2023at MINMIN 11 − 1
May 12, 2023at MINCHC 6 − 2
Sep 22, 2021at CHCMIN 5 − 4

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jul 12vs LAA4 − 2W
Jul 11vs LAA5 − 3W
Jul 10vs LAA3 − 4L
Jul 9vs CLE2 − 5L
Jul 8vs CLE6 − 5W
Jul 7vs CLE3 − 1W
Jul 5at NYY6 − 1W
Jul 4at NYY11 − 4W
Jul 3at NYY2 − 5L
Jul 1at HOU8 − 3W

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 12at CIN8 − 4W
Jul 11at CIN5 − 3W
Jul 10at CIN0 − 4L
Jul 9at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 8at BAL9 − 7W
Jul 7at BAL5 − 2W
Jul 5vs STL6 − 4W
Jul 4vs STL0 − 3L
Jul 3vs STL1 − 17L
Jul 1vs SD23 − 3W