bayesRatings

Pirates at Guardians

MLB · Saturday, Jul 18 · 12:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final PIT 7 – CLE 1
← MLB / Jul 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT0200030207110
CLE001000000160
Team box
PIT·CLE
11
hits
6
3
home runs
0
0
walks
1
14
strikeouts
13
135
pitches thrown
130
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jacob GonzalezPIT2-4112
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4111
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT1-4112
Steven KwanCLE2-2100
Travis BazzanaCLE1-4001
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jared Jones (W)PIT5.03119
Gavin Williams (L)CLE6.075011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +6
PIT +6
123456789
largest lead: CLE 0 · PIT 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 48%, CLE 52% · Updated Jul 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.9 – 3.9 PIT
Expected total
7.8
PiratesThe matchupGuardians
+107Our fair odds−107
3.9Expected runs3.9
+0.02Power rating+0.04
5.3Runs / game4.0
4.9Allowed / game4.0
9.1Hits / game7.5
1.29Home runs / game0.96
3.7Walks drawn / game3.6
50−47Season record51−46
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CLE chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi50.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10748%−10350.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10752%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.1our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more35%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more25%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CLE
Jul 12 vs MIL
last game
Jul 12 at MIA
5 days
days of rest
5 days
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 97+ games
PIT·CLE
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
5.3
runs / game
4.0
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.0
50−47
season record
51−46
27−24
home record
24−22
23−23
away record
27−24
W3
streak
W4
7−3
last 10
6−4
9.1
hits / game
7.5
1.29
home runs / game
0.96
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.59
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

PIT · CLE · 112 days
Pittsburgh PiratesCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 8−2
Apr 20, 2025at PITCLE 5 − 4
Apr 19, 2025at PITCLE 3 − 0
Apr 18, 2025at PITCLE 10 − 7
Sep 1, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 1
Aug 31, 2024at CLEPIT 3 − 0
Aug 30, 2024at CLECLE 10 − 8
Jul 19, 2023at PITPIT 7 − 5
Jul 18, 2023at PITCLE 10 − 1
Jul 17, 2023at PITCLE 11 − 0
Jun 20, 2021at PITCLE 2 − 1

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jul 12vs MIL14 − 5W
Jul 11vs MIL3 − 2W
Jul 11vs MIL7 − 6W
Jul 9vs ATL5 − 10L
Jul 8vs ATL0 − 3L
Jul 7vs ATL12 − 4W
Jul 5at WSH11 − 5W
Jul 4at WSH7 − 1W
Jul 3at WSH5 − 9L
Jul 2at PHI6 − 1W

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jul 12at MIA5 − 2W
Jul 11at MIA4 − 1W
Jul 10at MIA3 − 2W
Jul 9at MIN5 − 2W
Jul 8at MIN5 − 6L
Jul 7at MIN1 − 3L
Jul 5vs CHW6 − 7L
Jul 4vs CHW1 − 3L
Jul 3vs CHW4 − 3W
Jul 2vs CHW6 − 5W