bayesRatings

Twins at Guardians

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 21 · 5:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final MIN 2 – CLE 5
← MLB / Jul 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN100100000260
CLE00200210592
Team box
MIN·CLE
6
hits
9
1
home runs
0
1
walks
4
9
strikeouts
3
132
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan JeffersMIN1-4111
Brayan RocchioCLE2-4001
Gabriel AriasCLE2-4000
Steven KwanCLE1-3101
Chase DeLauterCLE2-4000
Travis BazzanaCLE1-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kendry RojasMIN2.11222
Mike Paredes (L)MIN3.06210
Parker MessickCLE5.24106
Colin Holderman (W)CLE0.10010
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 3 · MIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 45%, CLE 55% · Updated Jul 21

Expected margin
CLE by 0.6
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 3.7 MIN
Expected total
7.9
TwinsThe matchupGuardians
+120Our fair odds−120
3.7Expected runs4.2
−0.09Power rating+0.04
4.8Runs / game4.0
5.1Allowed / game4.0
8.4Hits / game7.7
1.22Home runs / game1.00
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
49−52Season record53−48
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+12045%+12943.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−12055%−15460.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.6
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.6 expected
Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more40%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINKendry Rojas RP · last 2 starts: 6.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 7 Kstarted
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CLE
Jul 20 at CLE
last game
Jul 20 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 101+ games
MIN·CLE
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.8
runs / game
4.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.0
49−52
season record
53−48
26−25
home record
26−24
23−27
away record
27−24
L3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
7.7
1.22
home runs / game
1.00
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.52
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

MIN · CLE · 115 days
Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Jul 20at CLECLE 13 − 4
Jul 9at MINCLE 5 − 2
Jul 8at MINMIN 6 − 5
Jul 7at MINMIN 3 − 1
May 10at CLEMIN 5 − 4
May 9at CLEMIN 2 − 1
May 8at CLECLE 6 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at MINCLE 8 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at MINCLE 6 − 0

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jul 20at CLE4 − 13L
Jul 19at CHC1 − 10L
Jul 18at CHC2 − 6L
Jul 17at CHC5 − 2W
Jul 12vs LAA4 − 2W
Jul 11vs LAA5 − 3W
Jul 10vs LAA3 − 4L
Jul 9vs CLE2 − 5L
Jul 8vs CLE6 − 5W
Jul 7vs CLE3 − 1W

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 20vs MIN13 − 4W
Jul 19vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 18vs PIT5 − 3W
Jul 18vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 12at MIA5 − 2W
Jul 11at MIA4 − 1W
Jul 10at MIA3 − 2W
Jul 9at MIN5 − 2W
Jul 8at MIN5 − 6L
Jul 7at MIN1 − 3L