bayesRatings

Twins at Guardians

MLB · Monday, Jul 20 · 5:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final MIN 4 – CLE 13
← MLB / Jul 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN0200001104100
CLE3311113013190
Team box
MIN·CLE
10
hits
19
0
home runs
7
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
7
165
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Petey HalpinCLE3-5323
Patrick BaileyCLE4-5212
Chase DeLauterCLE4-5003
Rhys HoskinsCLE2-5222
Travis BazzanaCLE3-5211
Brayan RocchioCLE1-5112
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joe Ryan (L)MIN4.010803
Tanner Bibee (W)CLE6.06215

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +10
MIN +10
123456789
largest lead: CLE 10 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, CLE 54% · Updated Jul 20

Expected margin
CLE by 0.5
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 3.6 MIN
Expected total
7.8
TwinsThe matchupGuardians
+117Our fair odds−117
3.6Expected runs4.2
−0.08Power rating+0.02
4.8Runs / game3.9
5.0Allowed / game4.0
8.3Hits / game7.6
1.23Home runs / game0.94
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
49−51Season record52−48
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11746%−13757.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11754%+11446.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.5
MINMinnesota Twins+0.5our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.5 expected
Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more28%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.06 ERA, 20 Kstarted
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CLE
Jul 19 at CHC
last game
Jul 19 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 100+ games
MIN·CLE
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.8
runs / game
3.9
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.0
49−51
season record
52−48
26−25
home record
25−24
23−26
away record
27−24
L2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
7.6
1.23
home runs / game
0.94
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.53
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

MIN · CLE · 114 days
Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Jul 9at MINCLE 5 − 2
Jul 8at MINMIN 6 − 5
Jul 7at MINMIN 3 − 1
May 10at CLEMIN 5 − 4
May 9at CLEMIN 2 − 1
May 8at CLECLE 6 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at MINCLE 8 − 0
Sep 20, 2025at MINCLE 6 − 0
Sep 19, 2025at MINCLE 6 − 2

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jul 19at CHC1 − 10L
Jul 18at CHC2 − 6L
Jul 17at CHC5 − 2W
Jul 12vs LAA4 − 2W
Jul 11vs LAA5 − 3W
Jul 10vs LAA3 − 4L
Jul 9vs CLE2 − 5L
Jul 8vs CLE6 − 5W
Jul 7vs CLE3 − 1W
Jul 5at NYY6 − 1W

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 19vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 18vs PIT5 − 3W
Jul 18vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 12at MIA5 − 2W
Jul 11at MIA4 − 1W
Jul 10at MIA3 − 2W
Jul 9at MIN5 − 2W
Jul 8at MIN5 − 6L
Jul 7at MIN1 − 3L
Jul 5vs CHW6 − 7L