bayesRatings

Pirates at Guardians

MLB · Saturday, Jul 18 · 6:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final PIT 3 – CLE 5
← MLB / Jul 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT011100000360
CLE0000000325111
Team box
PIT·CLE
6
hits
11
0
home runs
1
5
walks
4
10
strikeouts
10
146
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Travis BazzanaCLE2-3112
Steven KwanCLE3-4200
Chase DeLauterCLE1-4101
Kahlil WatsonCLE1-2001
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT1-4001
Brayan RocchioCLE1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mason MontgomeryPIT1.00011
Dennis Santana (L)PIT0.13200
Logan AllenCLE3.16233
Cade Smith (W)CLE1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 2 · PIT 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 48%, CLE 52% · Updated Jul 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.9 – 3.9 PIT
Expected total
7.8
PiratesThe matchupGuardians
+107Our fair odds−107
3.9Expected runs3.9
+0.02Power rating+0.04
5.3Runs / game4.0
4.9Allowed / game4.0
9.1Hits / game7.5
1.29Home runs / game0.96
3.7Walks drawn / game3.6
50−47Season record51−46
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CLE chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10748%−10751.8%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10752%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.1our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more35%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more25%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITMason Montgomery RP · last 3 starts: 3.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 6 Kstarted
CLELogan Allen RP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CLE
Jul 18 at CLE
last game
Jul 18 vs PIT
same day
days of rest
same day
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 97+ games
PIT·CLE
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
5.3
runs / game
4.0
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.0
50−47
season record
51−46
27−24
home record
24−22
23−23
away record
27−24
W3
streak
W4
7−3
last 10
6−4
9.1
hits / game
7.5
1.29
home runs / game
0.96
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.59
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

PIT · CLE · 112 days
Pittsburgh PiratesCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 8−2
Apr 20, 2025at PITCLE 5 − 4
Apr 19, 2025at PITCLE 3 − 0
Apr 18, 2025at PITCLE 10 − 7
Sep 1, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 1
Aug 31, 2024at CLEPIT 3 − 0
Aug 30, 2024at CLECLE 10 − 8
Jul 19, 2023at PITPIT 7 − 5
Jul 18, 2023at PITCLE 10 − 1
Jul 17, 2023at PITCLE 11 − 0
Jun 20, 2021at PITCLE 2 − 1

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jul 12vs MIL14 − 5W
Jul 11vs MIL3 − 2W
Jul 11vs MIL7 − 6W
Jul 9vs ATL5 − 10L
Jul 8vs ATL0 − 3L
Jul 7vs ATL12 − 4W
Jul 5at WSH11 − 5W
Jul 4at WSH7 − 1W
Jul 3at WSH5 − 9L
Jul 2at PHI6 − 1W

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jul 12at MIA5 − 2W
Jul 11at MIA4 − 1W
Jul 10at MIA3 − 2W
Jul 9at MIN5 − 2W
Jul 8at MIN5 − 6L
Jul 7at MIN1 − 3L
Jul 5vs CHW6 − 7L
Jul 4vs CHW1 − 3L
Jul 3vs CHW4 − 3W
Jul 2vs CHW6 − 5W