bayesRatings

Pirates at Guardians

MLB · Sunday, Jul 19 · 12:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final PIT 7 – CLE 1
← MLB / Jul 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT0100130027111
CLE001000000171
Team box
PIT·CLE
11
hits
7
1
home runs
0
5
walks
2
15
strikeouts
11
127
pitches thrown
146
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Billy CookPIT3-4202
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT1-3112
Steven KwanCLE2-4001
Jake MangumPIT2-5001
Jared TrioloPIT2-3100
Nick GonzalesPIT2-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Paul Skenes (W)PIT7.07128
Joey Cantillo (L)CLE5.07437

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +6
PIT +6
123456789
largest lead: CLE 0 · PIT 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 48%, CLE 52% · Updated Jul 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.9 – 3.9 PIT
Expected total
7.7
PiratesThe matchupGuardians
+107Our fair odds−107
3.9Expected runs3.9
+0.02Power rating+0.03
5.3Runs / game3.9
4.8Allowed / game4.0
9.1Hits / game7.6
1.29Home runs / game0.95
3.7Walks drawn / game3.6
51−48Season record52−47
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CLE chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10748%−10350.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10752%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh PiratesPKour margin————
CLECleveland GuardiansPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 18%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more34%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more24%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CLE
Jul 18 at CLE
last game
Jul 18 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 99+ games
PIT·CLE
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
5.3
runs / game
3.9
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.0
51−48
season record
52−47
27−24
home record
25−23
24−24
away record
27−24
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
9.1
hits / game
7.6
1.29
home runs / game
0.95
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.58
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

PIT · CLE · 113 days
Pittsburgh PiratesCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 7−3
Jul 18at CLECLE 5 − 3
Jul 18at CLEPIT 7 − 1
Apr 20, 2025at PITCLE 5 − 4
Apr 19, 2025at PITCLE 3 − 0
Apr 18, 2025at PITCLE 10 − 7
Sep 1, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 1
Aug 31, 2024at CLEPIT 3 − 0
Aug 30, 2024at CLECLE 10 − 8
Jul 19, 2023at PITPIT 7 − 5
Jul 18, 2023at PITCLE 10 − 1

PIT · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 18at CLE3 − 5L
Jul 18at CLE7 − 1W
Jul 12vs MIL14 − 5W
Jul 11vs MIL3 − 2W
Jul 11vs MIL7 − 6W
Jul 9vs ATL5 − 10L
Jul 8vs ATL0 − 3L
Jul 7vs ATL12 − 4W
Jul 5at WSH11 − 5W
Jul 4at WSH7 − 1W

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 18vs PIT5 − 3W
Jul 18vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 12at MIA5 − 2W
Jul 11at MIA4 − 1W
Jul 10at MIA3 − 2W
Jul 9at MIN5 − 2W
Jul 8at MIN5 − 6L
Jul 7at MIN1 − 3L
Jul 5vs CHW6 − 7L
Jul 4vs CHW1 − 3L