bayesRatings

Rays at Blue Jays

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 22 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final TB 4 – TOR 2
← MLB / Jul 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB010003000481
TOR100000100241
Team box
TB·TOR
8
hits
4
0
home runs
1
4
walks
1
9
strikeouts
8
122
pitches thrown
156
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alejandro KirkTOR2-3111
Victor Mesa Jr.TB2-3002
Taylor WallsTB2-4000
Chandler SimpsonTB1-2101
Junior CamineroTB2-4100
Nick FortesTB1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Griffin Jax (W)TB6.03115
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00001
Braydon FisherTOR1.10121
Jeff Hoffman (L)TOR0.22001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 1 · TB 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 51%, TOR 49% · Updated Jul 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.4 – 4.2 TOR
Expected total
8.6
RaysThe matchupBlue Jays
−103Our fair odds+103
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.08Power rating−0.02
4.5Runs / game4.0
4.2Allowed / game4.6
8.7Hits / game8.1
1.03Home runs / game1.00
3.5Walks drawn / game2.7
58−42Season record46−55
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · TOR chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−10351%−10751.8%———
TORToronto Blue Jays+10349%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.2our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byTOR wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more38%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more27%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 19 Kstarted
TORBraydon Fisher RP · last 3 starts: 3.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·TOR
Jul 21 at TOR
last game
Jul 21 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 100+ games
TB·TOR
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.5
runs / game
4.0
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.6
58−42
season record
46−55
35−15
home record
25−29
23−27
away record
21−26
W2
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.1
1.03
home runs / game
1.00
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.7
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.61
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

TB · TOR · 116 days
Tampa Bay RaysToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 3−7
Jul 21at TORTB 12 − 2
Jul 20at TORTB 7 − 1
May 13at TORTOR 5 − 3
May 12at TORTB 7 − 6
May 11at TORTB 8 − 5
May 6at TBTB 3 − 0
May 5at TBTB 4 − 3
May 4at TBTB 5 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 4
Sep 27, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 1

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jul 21at TOR12 − 2W
Jul 20at TOR7 − 1W
Jul 19at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 18at BOS6 − 7L
Jul 17at BOS3 − 5L
Jul 17at BOS0 − 10L
Jul 12vs SEA2 − 8L
Jul 11vs SEA6 − 1W
Jul 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jul 9vs NYY4 − 12L

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jul 21vs TB2 − 12L
Jul 20vs TB1 − 7L
Jul 19vs CHW0 − 3L
Jul 18vs CHW1 − 0W
Jul 17vs CHW4 − 12L
Jul 12at SD4 − 5L
Jul 11at SD7 − 8L
Jul 10at SD5 − 3W
Jul 8at SF10 − 0W
Jul 7at SF9 − 3W