bayesRatings

Rays at Blue Jays

MLB · Monday, Jul 20 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final TB 7 – TOR 1
← MLB / Jul 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB0110211017130
TOR000100000183
Team box
TB·TOR
13
hits
8
3
home runs
0
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
2
122
pitches thrown
145
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Junior CamineroTB3-4002
Nick FortesTB2-4211
Cedric MullinsTB1-5111
Victor Mesa Jr.TB1-4111
Yandy DiazTB2-5201
Taylor WallsTB2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick Martinez (W)TB6.06110
Dylan Cease (L)TOR6.07317

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +6
TB +6
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · TB 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 50%, TOR 50% · Updated Jul 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.2 – 4.2 TB
Expected total
8.5
RaysThe matchupBlue Jays
+101Our fair odds−101
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.05Power rating+0.00
4.4Runs / game4.0
4.3Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game8.1
1.00Home runs / game1.02
3.5Walks drawn / game2.8
56−42Season record46−53
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · TOR chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10150%+14640.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10150%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay RaysPKour margin————
TORToronto Blue JaysPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more35%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more25%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 7 Kstarted
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 30 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·TOR
Jul 19 at BOS
last game
Jul 19 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 98+ games
TB·TOR
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.4
runs / game
4.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
56−42
season record
46−53
35−15
home record
25−27
21−27
away record
21−26
L5
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.1
1.00
home runs / game
1.02
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.62
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

TB · TOR · 114 days
Tampa Bay RaysToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
May 13at TORTOR 5 − 3
May 12at TORTB 7 − 6
May 11at TORTB 8 − 5
May 6at TBTB 3 − 0
May 5at TBTB 4 − 3
May 4at TBTB 5 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 4
Sep 27, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at TBTB 4 − 0

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Jul 19at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 18at BOS6 − 7L
Jul 17at BOS3 − 5L
Jul 17at BOS0 − 10L
Jul 12vs SEA2 − 8L
Jul 11vs SEA6 − 1W
Jul 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jul 9vs NYY4 − 12L
Jul 8vs NYY3 − 0W
Jul 7vs NYY6 − 4W

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 19vs CHW0 − 3L
Jul 18vs CHW1 − 0W
Jul 17vs CHW4 − 12L
Jul 12at SD4 − 5L
Jul 11at SD7 − 8L
Jul 10at SD5 − 3W
Jul 8at SF10 − 0W
Jul 7at SF9 − 3W
Jul 6at SF1 − 10L
Jul 5at SEA0 − 4L