bayesRatings

Rays at Red Sox

MLB · Saturday, Jul 18 · 3:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final TB 6 – BOS 7
← MLB / Jul 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB0203001006101
BOS02100040762
Team box
TB·BOS
10
hits
6
2
home runs
3
3
walks
3
7
strikeouts
8
150
pitches thrown
127
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-3223
Jahmai JonesBOS1-1112
Jonny DeLucaTB2-5111
Victor Mesa Jr.TB1-4111
Andruw MonasterioBOS2-3200
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ian SeymourTB3.02324
Garrett Cleavinger (L)TB0.11110
Patrick SandovalBOS5.09415
Ryan Watson (W)BOS2.01102
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00020

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 1 · TB 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 48%, BOS 52% · Updated Jul 18

Expected margin
BOS by 0.6
Expected score
BOS 4.2 – 3.6 TB
Expected total
7.8
RaysThe matchupRed Sox
+109Our fair odds−109
3.6Expected runs4.2
+0.06Power rating+0.10
4.5Runs / game4.2
4.2Allowed / game3.8
8.6Hits / game8.2
0.99Home runs / game0.94
3.5Walks drawn / game3.0
56−40Season record48−48
4−6Last 1010−0

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · BOS chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10948%−10751.8%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−10952%−11653.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.6
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.6our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.6 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 19%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more30%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBIan Seymour SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 23 Kstarted
BOSPatrick Sandoval SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·BOS
Jul 17 at BOS
last game
Jul 17 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 96+ games
TB·BOS
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.5
runs / game
4.2
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.8
56−40
season record
48−48
35−15
home record
19−27
21−25
away record
29−21
L3
streak
W11
4−6
last 10
10−0
8.6
hits / game
8.2
0.99
home runs / game
0.94
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.60
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

TB · BOS · 112 days
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Jul 17at BOSBOS 5 − 3
Jul 17at BOSBOS 10 − 0
Jun 10at TBTB 7 − 5
Jun 9at TBTB 4 − 3
Jun 8at TBTB 3 − 1
May 10at BOSTB 4 − 1
May 8at BOSBOS 2 − 0
May 7at BOSTB 8 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at TBTB 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at TBBOS 6 − 3

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jul 17at BOS3 − 5L
Jul 17at BOS0 − 10L
Jul 12vs SEA2 − 8L
Jul 11vs SEA6 − 1W
Jul 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jul 9vs NYY4 − 12L
Jul 8vs NYY3 − 0W
Jul 7vs NYY6 − 4W
Jul 6vs NYY1 − 5L
Jul 5at HOU0 − 2L

BOS · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Jul 17vs TB5 − 3W
Jul 17vs TB10 − 0W
Jul 12at NYM3 − 2W
Jul 11at NYM4 − 0W
Jul 10at NYM6 − 2W
Jul 9at CHW2 − 1W
Jul 8at CHW5 − 0W
Jul 7at CHW8 − 1W
Jul 5at LAA7 − 5W
Jul 4at LAA8 − 1W