bayesRatings

Rays at Red Sox

MLB · Friday, Jul 17 · 12:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final TB 0 – BOS 10
← MLB / Jul 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000000000031
BOS0201061010150
Team box
TB·BOS
3
hits
15
0
home runs
2
1
walks
2
4
strikeouts
8
140
pitches thrown
108
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carlos NarvaezBOS3-4213
Masataka YoshidaBOS3-5311
Jarren DuranBOS1-3103
Caleb DurbinBOS3-4201
Anthony SeiglerBOS2-5000
Tsung-Che ChengBOS1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Griffin Jax (L)TB5.08716
Jake Bennett (W)BOS6.01013
Alec Gamboa (S)BOS3.02001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +10
TB +10
123456789
largest lead: BOS 10 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 49%, BOS 51% · Updated Jul 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.1 – 3.7 TB
Expected total
7.8
RaysThe matchupRed Sox
+105Our fair odds−105
3.7Expected runs4.1
+0.09Power rating+0.08
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.2Allowed / game3.8
8.6Hits / game8.1
1.00Home runs / game0.90
3.5Walks drawn / game3.0
56−38Season record46−48
5−5Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · BOS chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10549%————
BOSBoston Red Sox−10551%————
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.4our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 18%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more39%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 18 Kstarted
BOSJake Bennett SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·BOS
Jul 12 vs SEA
last game
Jul 12 at NYM
4 days
days of rest
4 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 94+ games
TB·BOS
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.8
56−38
season record
46−48
35−15
home record
17−27
21−23
away record
29−21
L1
streak
W9
5−5
last 10
9−1
8.6
hits / game
8.1
1.00
home runs / game
0.90
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.61
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

TB · BOS · 111 days
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Jun 10at TBTB 7 − 5
Jun 9at TBTB 4 − 3
Jun 8at TBTB 3 − 1
May 10at BOSTB 4 − 1
May 8at BOSBOS 2 − 0
May 7at BOSTB 8 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at TBTB 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at TBBOS 6 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at TBBOS 11 − 7
Jul 13, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 1

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 12vs SEA2 − 8L
Jul 11vs SEA6 − 1W
Jul 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jul 9vs NYY4 − 12L
Jul 8vs NYY3 − 0W
Jul 7vs NYY6 − 4W
Jul 6vs NYY1 − 5L
Jul 5at HOU0 − 2L
Jul 4at HOU8 − 10L
Jul 3at HOU3 − 1W

BOS · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Jul 12at NYM3 − 2W
Jul 11at NYM4 − 0W
Jul 10at NYM6 − 2W
Jul 9at CHW2 − 1W
Jul 8at CHW5 − 0W
Jul 7at CHW8 − 1W
Jul 5at LAA7 − 5W
Jul 4at LAA8 − 1W
Jul 3at LAA5 − 2W
Jul 1vs WSH2 − 10L