bayesRatings

Rays at Red Sox

MLB · Friday, Jul 17 · 6:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final TB 3 – BOS 5
← MLB / Jul 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB201000000370
BOS30110000582
Team box
TB·BOS
7
hits
8
1
home runs
3
2
walks
3
8
strikeouts
6
131
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-4223
Junior CamineroTB2-4211
Jonny DeLucaTB2-4002
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4111
Anthony SeiglerBOS1-3001
Caleb DurbinBOS2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mason Englert (L)TB5.08514
Eduardo RiveraBOS2.13323
Greg Weissert (W)BOS0.22000
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 2 · TB 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 49%, BOS 51% · Updated Jul 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.1 – 3.7 TB
Expected total
7.8
RaysThe matchupRed Sox
+105Our fair odds−105
3.7Expected runs4.1
+0.09Power rating+0.08
4.5Runs / game4.1
4.2Allowed / game3.8
8.6Hits / game8.1
1.00Home runs / game0.90
3.5Walks drawn / game3.0
56−38Season record46−48
5−5Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · BOS chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10549%————
BOSBoston Red Sox−10551%————
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.4our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 18%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more39%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBMason Englert RP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 3.97 ERA, 13 Kstarted
BOSEduardo Rivera SP · last 1 start: 3.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·BOS
Jul 17 at BOS
last game
Jul 17 vs TB
same day
days of rest
same day
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 94+ games
TB·BOS
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.5
runs / game
4.1
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.8
56−38
season record
46−48
35−15
home record
17−27
21−23
away record
29−21
L1
streak
W9
5−5
last 10
9−1
8.6
hits / game
8.1
1.00
home runs / game
0.90
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.61
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

TB · BOS · 111 days
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Jun 10at TBTB 7 − 5
Jun 9at TBTB 4 − 3
Jun 8at TBTB 3 − 1
May 10at BOSTB 4 − 1
May 8at BOSBOS 2 − 0
May 7at BOSTB 8 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at TBTB 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at TBBOS 6 − 3
Sep 19, 2025at TBBOS 11 − 7
Jul 13, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 1

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 12vs SEA2 − 8L
Jul 11vs SEA6 − 1W
Jul 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jul 9vs NYY4 − 12L
Jul 8vs NYY3 − 0W
Jul 7vs NYY6 − 4W
Jul 6vs NYY1 − 5L
Jul 5at HOU0 − 2L
Jul 4at HOU8 − 10L
Jul 3at HOU3 − 1W

BOS · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Jul 12at NYM3 − 2W
Jul 11at NYM4 − 0W
Jul 10at NYM6 − 2W
Jul 9at CHW2 − 1W
Jul 8at CHW5 − 0W
Jul 7at CHW8 − 1W
Jul 5at LAA7 − 5W
Jul 4at LAA8 − 1W
Jul 3at LAA5 − 2W
Jul 1vs WSH2 − 10L