bayesRatings

Rays at Red Sox

MLB · Sunday, Jul 19 · 12:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final TB 1 – BOS 6
← MLB / Jul 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB010000000182
BOS01302000660
Team box
TB·BOS
8
hits
6
1
home runs
1
5
walks
4
8
strikeouts
5
125
pitches thrown
137
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willson ContrerasBOS1-3212
Victor Mesa Jr.TB1-4111
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-3001
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-4100
Caleb DurbinBOS1-4101
Chandler SimpsonTB2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane McClanahan (L)TB5.05533
Sonny Gray (W)BOS6.05145

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +5
TB +5
123456789
largest lead: BOS 5 · TB 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 48%, BOS 52% · Updated Jul 19

Expected margin
BOS by 0.6
Expected score
BOS 4.2 – 3.7 TB
Expected total
7.9
RaysThe matchupRed Sox
+110Our fair odds−110
3.7Expected runs4.2
+0.06Power rating+0.10
4.5Runs / game4.2
4.3Allowed / game3.8
8.6Hits / game8.2
1.00Home runs / game0.96
3.5Walks drawn / game3.0
56−41Season record49−48
4−6Last 1010−0

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · BOS chance
Our model fair47.5%52.5%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+11048%+10548.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−11052%−12655.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.6
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.6our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.6 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 18%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more30%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 0.98 ERA, 13 Kstarted
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 0.93 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·BOS
Jul 18 at BOS
last game
Jul 18 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 97+ games
TB·BOS
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.5
runs / game
4.2
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.8
56−41
season record
49−48
35−15
home record
20−27
21−26
away record
29−21
L4
streak
W12
4−6
last 10
10−0
8.6
hits / game
8.2
1.00
home runs / game
0.96
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.61
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

TB · BOS · 113 days
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Jul 18at BOSBOS 7 − 6
Jul 17at BOSBOS 5 − 3
Jul 17at BOSBOS 10 − 0
Jun 10at TBTB 7 − 5
Jun 9at TBTB 4 − 3
Jun 8at TBTB 3 − 1
May 10at BOSTB 4 − 1
May 8at BOSBOS 2 − 0
May 7at BOSTB 8 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at TBTB 7 − 3

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jul 18at BOS6 − 7L
Jul 17at BOS3 − 5L
Jul 17at BOS0 − 10L
Jul 12vs SEA2 − 8L
Jul 11vs SEA6 − 1W
Jul 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jul 9vs NYY4 − 12L
Jul 8vs NYY3 − 0W
Jul 7vs NYY6 − 4W
Jul 6vs NYY1 − 5L

BOS · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Jul 18vs TB7 − 6W
Jul 17vs TB5 − 3W
Jul 17vs TB10 − 0W
Jul 12at NYM3 − 2W
Jul 11at NYM4 − 0W
Jul 10at NYM6 − 2W
Jul 9at CHW2 − 1W
Jul 8at CHW5 − 0W
Jul 7at CHW8 − 1W
Jul 5at LAA7 − 5W