bayesRatings

Rays at Blue Jays

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 21 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final TB 12 – TOR 2
← MLB / Jul 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB30023000412210
TOR000002000272
Team box
TB·TOR
21
hits
7
2
home runs
0
3
walks
1
7
strikeouts
6
139
pitches thrown
205
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick FortesTB3-5214
Yandy DiazTB2-6213
Chandler SimpsonTB4-5101
Jonny DeLucaTB2-6103
Ben WilliamsonTB4-5200
Cedric MullinsTB2-6200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Drew Rasmussen (W)TB5.07215
Kevin Gausman (L)TOR3.19421

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +10
TB +10
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · TB 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 50%, TOR 50% · Updated Jul 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
Expected total
8.5
RaysThe matchupBlue Jays
−101Our fair odds+101
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.06Power rating−0.01
4.5Runs / game4.0
4.3Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game8.1
1.02Home runs / game1.01
3.5Walks drawn / game2.8
57−42Season record46−54
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · TOR chance
Our model fair50.2%49.8%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−10150%−11252.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays+10150%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.1our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byTOR wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more36%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more26%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 7.42 ERA, 9 Kstarted
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·TOR
Jul 20 at TOR
last game
Jul 20 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
4
6th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 99+ games
TB·TOR
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.5
runs / game
4.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
57−42
season record
46−54
35−15
home record
25−28
22−27
away record
21−26
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.1
1.02
home runs / game
1.01
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.62
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

TB · TOR · 115 days
Tampa Bay RaysToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
Jul 20at TORTB 7 − 1
May 13at TORTOR 5 − 3
May 12at TORTB 7 − 6
May 11at TORTB 8 − 5
May 6at TBTB 3 − 0
May 5at TBTB 4 − 3
May 4at TBTB 5 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 4
Sep 27, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 20at TOR7 − 1W
Jul 19at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 18at BOS6 − 7L
Jul 17at BOS3 − 5L
Jul 17at BOS0 − 10L
Jul 12vs SEA2 − 8L
Jul 11vs SEA6 − 1W
Jul 10vs SEA7 − 2W
Jul 9vs NYY4 − 12L
Jul 8vs NYY3 − 0W

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 20vs TB1 − 7L
Jul 19vs CHW0 − 3L
Jul 18vs CHW1 − 0W
Jul 17vs CHW4 − 12L
Jul 12at SD4 − 5L
Jul 11at SD7 − 8L
Jul 10at SD5 − 3W
Jul 8at SF10 − 0W
Jul 7at SF9 − 3W
Jul 6at SF1 − 10L