bayesRatings

Twins at Guardians

MLB · Thursday, Jul 23 · 12:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final MIN 3 – CLE 1
← MLB / Jul 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789101112THE
MIN000000010002360
CLE000010000000131
Team box
MIN·CLE
6
hits
3
0
home runs
1
4
walks
7
14
strikeouts
10
191
pitches thrown
173
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Patrick BaileyCLE1-4111
Steven KwanCLE2-4000
Trevor LarnachMIN1-3001
Alan RodenMIN1-3001
Luke KeaschallMIN1-4001
Byron BuxtonMIN1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Taj BradleyMIN7.02135
Taylor Rogers (W)MIN1.00011
Jack Anderson (S)MIN1.00011
Gavin WilliamsCLE7.020011
Erik Sabrowski (L)CLE1.02111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
MIN +3
123456789101112
largest lead: CLE 1 · MIN 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, CLE 54% · Updated Jul 23

Expected margin
CLE by 0.6
Expected score
CLE 4.3 – 3.7 MIN
Expected total
8.0
TwinsThe matchupGuardians
+119Our fair odds−119
3.7Expected runs4.3
−0.09Power rating+0.03
4.8Runs / game4.0
5.1Allowed / game4.1
8.4Hits / game7.7
1.22Home runs / game0.99
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
50−53Season record54−49
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11946%+12444.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11954%−15460.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.6
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.6 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more41%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 22 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 5.09 ERA, 28 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CLE
Jul 22 at CLE
last game
Jul 22 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 103+ games
MIN·CLE
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.8
runs / game
4.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.1
50−53
season record
54−49
26−25
home record
27−25
24−28
away record
27−24
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
7.7
1.22
home runs / game
0.99
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.51
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

MIN · CLE · 117 days
Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6
Jul 22at CLEMIN 10 − 6
Jul 21at CLECLE 5 − 2
Jul 20at CLECLE 13 − 4
Jul 9at MINCLE 5 − 2
Jul 8at MINMIN 6 − 5
Jul 7at MINMIN 3 − 1
May 10at CLEMIN 5 − 4
May 9at CLEMIN 2 − 1
May 8at CLECLE 6 − 4
Sep 21, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 2

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 22at CLE10 − 6W
Jul 21at CLE2 − 5L
Jul 20at CLE4 − 13L
Jul 19at CHC1 − 10L
Jul 18at CHC2 − 6L
Jul 17at CHC5 − 2W
Jul 12vs LAA4 − 2W
Jul 11vs LAA5 − 3W
Jul 10vs LAA3 − 4L
Jul 9vs CLE2 − 5L

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 22vs MIN6 − 10L
Jul 21vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 20vs MIN13 − 4W
Jul 19vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 18vs PIT5 − 3W
Jul 18vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 12at MIA5 − 2W
Jul 11at MIA4 − 1W
Jul 10at MIA3 − 2W
Jul 9at MIN5 − 2W