bayesRatings

Guardians at Rays

MLB · Sunday, Jul 26 · 11:15 AM CT · Tropicana Field · Final CLE 0 – TB 1
← MLB / Jul 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000000000010
TB00001000160
Team box
CLE·TB
1
hits
6
0
home runs
0
2
walks
0
11
strikeouts
6
98
pitches thrown
126
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cedric MullinsTB1-3001
Chandler SimpsonTB2-3100
Steven KwanCLE1-4000
Ryan ViladeTB1-4000
Nick FortesTB1-3000
Ben WilliamsonTB1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Parker Messick (L)CLE7.26106
Drew Rasmussen (W)TB7.01019
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 1 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 47%, TB 53% · Updated Jul 26

Expected margin
TB by 0.8
Expected score
TB 4.4 – 3.6 CLE
Expected total
8.0
GuardiansThe matchupRays
+115Our fair odds−115
3.6Expected runs4.4
+0.01Power rating+0.09
4.0Runs / game4.5
4.1Allowed / game4.2
7.7Hits / game8.7
0.98Home runs / game1.01
3.6Walks drawn / game3.4
54−52Season record61−43
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · TB chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:15 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+11547%+10548.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11553%−12655.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.8
CLECleveland Guardians+0.8our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.8 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 18%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 12%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more43%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more32%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 10 Kstarted
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 9.49 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·TB
Jul 25 at TB
last game
Jul 25 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 104+ games
CLE·TB
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
4.0
runs / game
4.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.2
54−52
season record
61−43
27−26
home record
37−15
27−26
away record
24−28
L4
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.7
hits / game
8.7
0.98
home runs / game
1.01
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.53
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

CLE · TB · 120 days
Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Jul 25at TBTB 3 − 0
Jul 24at TBTB 11 − 3
Apr 29at CLECLE 3 − 1
Apr 28at CLETB 1 − 0
Apr 27at CLETB 3 − 2
Sep 7, 2025at TBCLE 2 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at TBCLE 3 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at TBCLE 7 − 1
Sep 4, 2025at TBTB 4 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 3

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jul 25at TB0 − 3L
Jul 24at TB3 − 11L
Jul 23vs MIN1 − 3L
Jul 22vs MIN6 − 10L
Jul 21vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 20vs MIN13 − 4W
Jul 19vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 18vs PIT5 − 3W
Jul 18vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 12at MIA5 − 2W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 25vs CLE3 − 0W
Jul 24vs CLE11 − 3W
Jul 23at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 22at TOR4 − 2W
Jul 21at TOR12 − 2W
Jul 20at TOR7 − 1W
Jul 19at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 18at BOS6 − 7L
Jul 17at BOS3 − 5L
Jul 17at BOS0 − 10L