bayesRatings

Giants at Rangers

MLB · Monday, Aug 3 · 7:00 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final SF 5 – TEX 1
← MLB / Aug 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF021000011560
TEX000000001175
Team box
SF·TEX
6
hits
7
2
home runs
1
5
walks
3
6
strikeouts
10
147
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
5
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jung Hoo LeeSF3-4223
Ezequiel DuranTEX4-4111
Osleivis BasabeSF1-3001
Christian KossSF1-4000
Drew GilbertSF1-4100
Joc PedersonTEX1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Webb (W)SF6.05018
Cal Quantrill (L)TEX6.04114

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +5
SF +5
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · SF 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 47%, TEX 53% · Updated Aug 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.4 – 4.0 SF
Expected total
8.4
GiantsThe matchupRangers
+113Our fair odds−113
4.0Expected runs4.4
−0.09Power rating−0.04
4.2Runs / game4.2
4.7Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game8.2
1.12Home runs / game1.15
2.6Walks drawn / game3.2
47−65Season record55−57
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · TEX chance
Our model fair47.1%52.9%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11347%+10947.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11353%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.3our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more38%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 13 Kstarted
TEXCal Quantrill RP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·TEX
Aug 2 at SD
last game
Aug 2 at HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 112+ games
SF·TEX
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.2
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
47−65
season record
55−57
26−27
home record
28−25
21−38
away record
27−32
L3
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.2
1.12
home runs / game
1.15
2.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.66
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

SF · TEX · 128 days
San Francisco GiantsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 5−5
Apr 27, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
Apr 25, 2025at SFTEX 2 − 0
Jun 9, 2024at TEXTEX 7 − 2
Jun 8, 2024at TEXSF 3 − 1
Jun 7, 2024at TEXSF 5 − 2
Aug 13, 2023at SFSF 3 − 2
Aug 12, 2023at SFTEX 9 − 3
Aug 11, 2023at SFTEX 2 − 1
Jun 9, 2021at TEXTEX 4 − 3

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Aug 2at SD4 − 5L
Aug 1at SD5 − 6L
Jul 31at SD0 − 7L
Jul 30at SD4 − 1W
Jul 29vs MIL16 − 3W
Jul 28vs MIL2 − 8L
Jul 27vs MIL3 − 0W
Jul 26vs LAA3 − 4L
Jul 25vs LAA9 − 2W
Jul 24vs LAA7 − 6W

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Aug 2at HOU3 − 7L
Aug 1at HOU4 − 5L
Jul 31at HOU2 − 11L
Jul 30at TB2 − 3L
Jul 29at TB0 − 3L
Jul 28at TB4 − 1W
Jul 27vs SEA7 − 3W
Jul 26vs SEA4 − 6L
Jul 25vs SEA7 − 1W
Jul 24vs SEA5 − 4W