bayesRatings

Rangers at Rays

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 29 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final TEX 0 – TB 3
← MLB / Jul 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000000000040
TB30000000330
Team box
TEX·TB
4
hits
3
0
home runs
2
1
walks
1
8
strikeouts
9
114
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan ViladeTB1-3112
Yandy DiazTB1-3111
Jonathan ArandaTB1-4100
Brandon NimmoTEX1-4000
Elias DiazTEX1-2000
Jake BurgerTEX1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie Gore (L)TEX7.03309
Casey LeguminaTB1.21000
Ian Seymour (W)TB4.22014
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 3 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 46%, TB 54% · Updated Jul 29

Expected margin
TB by 0.5
Expected score
TB 4.3 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
8.1
RangersThe matchupRays
+116Our fair odds−116
3.8Expected runs4.3
−0.00Power rating+0.09
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game4.1
8.3Hits / game8.7
1.17Home runs / game0.99
3.2Walks drawn / game3.4
55−52Season record62−44
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · TB chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+11646%+12444.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11654%−14859.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.5
TEXTexas Rangers+0.5our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.5 expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more40%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 16 Kstarted
TBCasey Legumina RP · last 3 starts: 5.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·TB
Jul 28 at TB
last game
Jul 28 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 106+ games
TEX·TB
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
55−52
season record
62−44
28−25
home record
38−16
27−27
away record
24−28
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
8.7
1.17
home runs / game
0.99
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.42
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

TEX · TB · 123 days
Texas RangersTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 3−7
Jul 28at TBTEX 4 − 1
Jun 5, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Jun 4, 2025at TBTB 5 − 4
Jun 3, 2025at TBTB 5 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 5, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at TEXTEX 5 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at TEXTEX 13 − 2
Jul 6, 2024at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Jul 5, 2024at TEXTEX 3 − 0

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 28at TB4 − 1W
Jul 27vs SEA7 − 3W
Jul 26vs SEA4 − 6L
Jul 25vs SEA7 − 1W
Jul 24vs SEA5 − 4W
Jul 22vs CHW2 − 4L
Jul 21vs CHW10 − 0W
Jul 20vs CHW3 − 10L
Jul 19at ATL5 − 8L
Jul 18at ATL7 − 6W

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 28vs TEX1 − 4L
Jul 26vs CLE1 − 0W
Jul 25vs CLE3 − 0W
Jul 24vs CLE11 − 3W
Jul 23at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 22at TOR4 − 2W
Jul 21at TOR12 − 2W
Jul 20at TOR7 − 1W
Jul 19at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 18at BOS6 − 7L