bayesRatings

Rangers at Rays

MLB · Thursday, Jul 30 · 11:10 AM CT · Tropicana Field · Final TEX 2 – TB 3
← MLB / Jul 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000110000220
TB00100101391
Team box
TEX·TB
2
hits
9
0
home runs
2
7
walks
2
13
strikeouts
5
136
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonny DeLucaTB2-4111
Cedric MullinsTB1-4111
Yandy DiazTB2-4001
Wyatt LangfordTEX1-4001
Jonathan ArandaTB1-4000
Hunter FeducciaTB1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cole WinnTEX1.01000
Ben Peoples (L)TEX0.22101
Shane McClanahanTB3.00123
Garrett Cleavinger (W)TB1.00012
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00022

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 1 · TEX 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 46%, TB 54% · Updated Jul 30

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 4.3 – 3.7 TEX
Expected total
8.0
RangersThe matchupRays
+118Our fair odds−118
3.7Expected runs4.3
−0.01Power rating+0.10
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game4.1
8.2Hits / game8.6
1.16Home runs / game1.00
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
55−53Season record63−44
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · TB chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshi40.7%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:10 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+11846%+14640.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11854%−18364.6%———
SpreadTB by 0.6
TEXTexas Rangers+0.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.6 expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXCole Winn RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·TB
Jul 29 at TB
last game
Jul 29 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 107+ games
TEX·TB
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
55−53
season record
63−44
28−25
home record
39−16
27−28
away record
24−28
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.2
hits / game
8.6
1.16
home runs / game
1.00
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.42
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

TEX · TB · 124 days
Texas RangersTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Jul 29at TBTB 3 − 0
Jul 28at TBTEX 4 − 1
Jun 5, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Jun 4, 2025at TBTB 5 − 4
Jun 3, 2025at TBTB 5 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 5, 2025at TEXTEX 6 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at TEXTEX 5 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at TEXTEX 13 − 2
Jul 6, 2024at TEXTEX 4 − 3

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 29at TB0 − 3L
Jul 28at TB4 − 1W
Jul 27vs SEA7 − 3W
Jul 26vs SEA4 − 6L
Jul 25vs SEA7 − 1W
Jul 24vs SEA5 − 4W
Jul 22vs CHW2 − 4L
Jul 21vs CHW10 − 0W
Jul 20vs CHW3 − 10L
Jul 19at ATL5 − 8L

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jul 29vs TEX3 − 0W
Jul 28vs TEX1 − 4L
Jul 26vs CLE1 − 0W
Jul 25vs CLE3 − 0W
Jul 24vs CLE11 − 3W
Jul 23at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 22at TOR4 − 2W
Jul 21at TOR12 − 2W
Jul 20at TOR7 − 1W
Jul 19at BOS1 − 6L