bayesRatings

Rangers at Astros

MLB · Friday, Jul 31 · 7:15 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final TEX 2 – HOU 11
← MLB / Jul 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000002000280
HOU0301204111180
Team box
TEX·HOU
8
hits
18
1
home runs
3
2
walks
5
7
strikeouts
8
172
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yainer DiazHOU4-5211
Jeremy PenaHOU3-5103
Isaac ParedesHOU2-3112
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-3002
Christian WalkerHOU1-5111
Joc PedersonTEX1-1111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nathan Eovaldi (L)TEX5.010615
Hunter Brown (W)HOU5.26225

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +9
TEX +9
123456789
largest lead: HOU 9 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 49%, HOU 51% · Updated Jul 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.5 – 4.5 TEX
Expected total
8.9
RangersThe matchupAstros
+106Our fair odds−106
4.5Expected runs4.5
−0.01Power rating−0.01
4.2Runs / game4.6
4.4Allowed / game5.0
8.2Hits / game8.1
1.15Home runs / game1.37
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
55−54Season record55−55
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · HOU chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10649%+10548.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−10651%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas RangersPKour margin————
HOUHouston AstrosPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more36%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more26%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 20 Kstarted
HOUHunter Brown SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·HOU
Jul 30 at TB
last game
Jul 29 at LAA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 109+ games
TEX·HOU
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.2
runs / game
4.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.0
55−54
season record
55−55
28−25
home record
26−27
27−29
away record
29−28
L2
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
8−2
8.2
hits / game
8.1
1.15
home runs / game
1.37
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.41
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

TEX · HOU · 125 days
Texas RangersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Jul 12at TEXTEX 6 − 5
Jul 11at TEXHOU 9 − 3
Jul 10at TEXTEX 7 − 3
May 28at TEXHOU 5 − 1
May 27at TEXHOU 4 − 3
May 26at TEXTEX 10 − 7
May 25at TEXHOU 9 − 0
May 17at HOUTEX 8 − 0
May 16at HOUHOU 4 − 1
May 15at HOUHOU 2 − 0

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jul 30at TB2 − 3L
Jul 29at TB0 − 3L
Jul 28at TB4 − 1W
Jul 27vs SEA7 − 3W
Jul 26vs SEA4 − 6L
Jul 25vs SEA7 − 1W
Jul 24vs SEA5 − 4W
Jul 22vs CHW2 − 4L
Jul 21vs CHW10 − 0W
Jul 20vs CHW3 − 10L

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Jul 29at LAA7 − 4W
Jul 28at LAA3 − 2W
Jul 27at LAA6 − 4W
Jul 26at CHW3 − 12L
Jul 25at CHW4 − 1W
Jul 24at CHW9 − 5W
Jul 22vs MIA5 − 2W
Jul 21vs MIA5 − 3W
Jul 20vs MIA8 − 5W
Jul 19vs BAL2 − 5L