bayesRatings

Astros at Angels

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 28 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final HOU 3 – LAA 2
← MLB / Jul 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU100100001390
LAA001010000270
Team box
HOU·LAA
9
hits
7
2
home runs
0
3
walks
1
17
strikeouts
11
144
pitches thrown
164
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-4112
Christian WalkerHOU2-4111
Jorge SolerLAA2-3001
Vaughn GrissomLAA2-3001
Jose AltuveHOU2-4000
Christian VazquezHOU1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Peter LambertHOU5.07216
Steven Okert (W)HOU1.00002
Josh Hader (S)HOU1.00000
Reid DetmersLAA5.04219
Mitch Farris (L)LAA1.03102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · HOU 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 54%, LAA 46% · Updated Jul 28

Expected margin
HOU by 0.5
Expected score
HOU 4.9 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
9.3
AstrosThe matchupAngels
−118Our fair odds+118
4.9Expected runs4.4
−0.03Power rating−0.25
4.6Runs / game4.3
5.0Allowed / game4.9
8.1Hits / game8.0
1.36Home runs / game1.08
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
53−55Season record42−65
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · LAA chance
Our model fair54.1%45.9%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros−11854%−11252.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11846%−10751.8%———
SpreadHOU by 0.5
HOUHouston Astros−0.5our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 0.5 expected
Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byLAA wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more41%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 20 Kstarted
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·LAA
Jul 27 at LAA
last game
Jul 27 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 107+ games
HOU·LAA
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
4.6
runs / game
4.3
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.9
53−55
season record
42−65
26−27
home record
24−29
27−28
away record
18−36
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.0
1.36
home runs / game
1.08
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.42
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

HOU · LAA · 122 days
Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
Jul 27at LAAHOU 6 − 4
Jun 10at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jun 9at LAALAA 10 − 1
Jun 8at LAAHOU 5 − 4
Mar 29at HOUHOU 9 − 7
Mar 28at HOUHOU 11 − 9
Mar 27at HOULAA 6 − 2
Mar 26at HOULAA 3 − 0
Sep 28, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 1

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 27at LAA6 − 4W
Jul 26at CHW3 − 12L
Jul 25at CHW4 − 1W
Jul 24at CHW9 − 5W
Jul 22vs MIA5 − 2W
Jul 21vs MIA5 − 3W
Jul 20vs MIA8 − 5W
Jul 19vs BAL2 − 5L
Jul 18vs BAL2 − 4L
Jul 17vs BAL2 − 3L

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 27vs HOU4 − 6L
Jul 26at SF4 − 3W
Jul 25at SF2 − 9L
Jul 24at SF6 − 7L
Jul 22vs STL0 − 1L
Jul 21vs STL5 − 1W
Jul 20vs STL3 − 2W
Jul 19vs DET3 − 2W
Jul 18vs DET0 − 7L
Jul 17vs DET1 − 2L