bayesRatings

Astros at White Sox

MLB · Sunday, Jul 26 · 1:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final HOU 3 – CHW 12
← MLB / Jul 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU101010000370
CHW2010024312120
Team box
HOU·CHW
7
hits
12
3
home runs
5
4
walks
4
7
strikeouts
6
151
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Munetaka MurakamiCHW3-5326
Jeremy PenaHOU2-4222
Miguel VargasCHW1-5112
Junior PerezCHW1-1212
Taylor TrammellHOU2-4111
Chase MeidrothCHW1-3211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ronel Blanco (L)HOU5.14534
Erick FeddeCHW4.15312
Sean Newcomb (W)CHW0.21010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +9
HOU +9
123456789
largest lead: CHW 9 · HOU 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 49%, CHW 51% · Updated Jul 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.5 – 4.4 HOU
Expected total
8.9
AstrosThe matchupWhite Sox
+105Our fair odds−105
4.4Expected runs4.5
−0.02Power rating−0.03
4.6Runs / game4.7
4.9Allowed / game4.4
8.1Hits / game8.0
1.35Home runs / game1.27
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
52−54Season record54−49
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · CHW chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10549%+10149.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−10551%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros+0.2our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOURonel Blanco RP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 24 Kstarted
CHWErick Fedde SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·CHW
Jul 25 at CHW
last game
Jul 25 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 103+ games
HOU·CHW
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.6
runs / game
4.7
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
52−54
season record
54−49
26−27
home record
31−19
26−27
away record
23−30
W5
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.0
1.35
home runs / game
1.27
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.42
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

HOU · CHW · 120 days
Houston AstrosChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 3−7
Jul 25at CHWHOU 4 − 1
Jul 24at CHWHOU 9 − 5
Jun 12, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at HOUHOU 10 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at HOUCHW 4 − 2
May 4, 2025at CHWCHW 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at CHWHOU 8 − 3
May 2, 2025at CHWCHW 7 − 3
Aug 18, 2024at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Aug 17, 2024at HOUHOU 6 − 1

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Jul 25at CHW4 − 1W
Jul 24at CHW9 − 5W
Jul 22vs MIA5 − 2W
Jul 21vs MIA5 − 3W
Jul 20vs MIA8 − 5W
Jul 19vs BAL2 − 5L
Jul 18vs BAL2 − 4L
Jul 17vs BAL2 − 3L
Jul 12at TEX5 − 6L
Jul 11at TEX9 − 3W

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jul 25vs HOU1 − 4L
Jul 24vs HOU5 − 9L
Jul 22at TEX4 − 2W
Jul 21at TEX0 − 10L
Jul 20at TEX10 − 3W
Jul 19at TOR3 − 0W
Jul 18at TOR0 − 1L
Jul 17at TOR12 − 4W
Jul 12vs ATH9 − 1W
Jul 11vs ATH1 − 0W