bayesRatings

Astros at White Sox

MLB · Saturday, Jul 25 · 6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final HOU 4 – CHW 1
← MLB / Jul 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU000003010461
CHW000000001151
Team box
HOU·CHW
6
hits
5
0
home runs
0
2
walks
1
12
strikeouts
10
138
pitches thrown
150
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Isaac ParedesHOU2-4003
Jeremy PenaHOU3-4200
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-4001
Miguel VargasCHW1-4100
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-4000
Braden MontgomeryCHW1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Hunter Brown (W)HOU7.02007
Josh Hader (S)HOU0.20002
Sean Burke (L)CHW6.042110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +4
HOU +4
123456789
largest lead: CHW 0 · HOU 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 49%, CHW 51% · Updated Jul 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.5 – 4.4 HOU
Expected total
8.9
AstrosThe matchupWhite Sox
+106Our fair odds−106
4.4Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating−0.02
4.6Runs / game4.8
5.0Allowed / game4.4
8.2Hits / game8.0
1.36Home runs / game1.28
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
51−54Season record54−48
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · CHW chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10649%+10548.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−10651%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros+0.2our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUHunter Brown SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.98 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 0.92 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·CHW
Jul 24 at CHW
last game
Jul 24 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 102+ games
HOU·CHW
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.6
runs / game
4.8
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.4
51−54
season record
54−48
26−27
home record
31−18
25−27
away record
23−30
W4
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.2
hits / game
8.0
1.36
home runs / game
1.28
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.41
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

HOU · CHW · 119 days
Houston AstrosChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 4−6
Jul 24at CHWHOU 9 − 5
Jun 12, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at HOUHOU 10 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at HOUCHW 4 − 2
May 4, 2025at CHWCHW 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at CHWHOU 8 − 3
May 2, 2025at CHWCHW 7 − 3
Aug 18, 2024at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Aug 17, 2024at HOUHOU 6 − 1
Aug 16, 2024at HOUCHW 5 − 4

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Jul 24at CHW9 − 5W
Jul 22vs MIA5 − 2W
Jul 21vs MIA5 − 3W
Jul 20vs MIA8 − 5W
Jul 19vs BAL2 − 5L
Jul 18vs BAL2 − 4L
Jul 17vs BAL2 − 3L
Jul 12at TEX5 − 6L
Jul 11at TEX9 − 3W
Jul 10at TEX3 − 7L

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 24vs HOU5 − 9L
Jul 22at TEX4 − 2W
Jul 21at TEX0 − 10L
Jul 20at TEX10 − 3W
Jul 19at TOR3 − 0W
Jul 18at TOR0 − 1L
Jul 17at TOR12 − 4W
Jul 12vs ATH9 − 1W
Jul 11vs ATH1 − 0W
Jul 10vs ATH14 − 1W