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Astros at Angels

MLB · Monday, Jul 27 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final HOU 6 – LAA 4
← MLB / Jul 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU000100014651
LAA202000000462
Team box
HOU·LAA
5
hits
6
1
home runs
1
5
walks
6
9
strikeouts
9
175
pitches thrown
170
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Vaughn GrissomLAA3-5112
Taylor TrammellHOU1-2211
Yordan AlvarezHOU1-3101
Jo AdellLAA1-3001
Nolan SchanuelLAA1-4001
Christian VazquezHOU1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tatsuya ImaiHOU0.21241
Cristian Javier (W)HOU5.03007
Josh Hader (S)HOU1.00020
Walbert UrenaLAA6.02125
Jose Fermin (L)LAA0.11000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +4
HOU +4
123456789
largest lead: LAA 4 · HOU 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 54%, LAA 46% · Updated Jul 27

Expected margin
HOU by 0.5
Expected score
HOU 4.9 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
9.3
AstrosThe matchupAngels
−117Our fair odds+117
4.9Expected runs4.4
−0.03Power rating−0.25
4.6Runs / game4.3
5.0Allowed / game4.9
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.36Home runs / game1.08
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
52−55Season record42−64
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · LAA chance
Our model fair53.8%46.2%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros−11754%−11252.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11746%−11252.7%———
SpreadHOU by 0.5
HOUHouston Astros−0.5our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 0.5 expected
Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byLAA wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more41%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUTatsuya Imai SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 6.55 ERA, 13 Kstarted
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 1.15 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·LAA
Jul 26 at CHW
last game
Jul 26 at SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 106+ games
HOU·LAA
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
4.6
runs / game
4.3
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.9
52−55
season record
42−64
26−27
home record
24−28
26−28
away record
18−36
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.36
home runs / game
1.08
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.41
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

HOU · LAA · 121 days
Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
Jun 10at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jun 9at LAALAA 10 − 1
Jun 8at LAAHOU 5 − 4
Mar 29at HOUHOU 9 − 7
Mar 28at HOUHOU 11 − 9
Mar 27at HOULAA 6 − 2
Mar 26at HOULAA 3 − 0
Sep 28, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 26at CHW3 − 12L
Jul 25at CHW4 − 1W
Jul 24at CHW9 − 5W
Jul 22vs MIA5 − 2W
Jul 21vs MIA5 − 3W
Jul 20vs MIA8 − 5W
Jul 19vs BAL2 − 5L
Jul 18vs BAL2 − 4L
Jul 17vs BAL2 − 3L
Jul 12at TEX5 − 6L

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 26at SF4 − 3W
Jul 25at SF2 − 9L
Jul 24at SF6 − 7L
Jul 22vs STL0 − 1L
Jul 21vs STL5 − 1W
Jul 20vs STL3 − 2W
Jul 19vs DET3 − 2W
Jul 18vs DET0 − 7L
Jul 17vs DET1 − 2L
Jul 12at MIN2 − 4L