bayesRatings

Astros at Angels

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 29 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final HOU 7 – LAA 4
← MLB / Jul 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU0110031017110
LAA300000010492
Team box
HOU·LAA
11
hits
9
2
home runs
0
5
walks
2
11
strikeouts
5
135
pitches thrown
179
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yainer DiazHOU4-5212
Jo AdellLAA2-3002
Jeremy PenaHOU1-5111
Cam SmithHOU1-5102
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-4102
Jose AltuveHOU2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Hayden Wesneski (W)HOU5.27324
Bryan Abreu (S)HOU1.10001
Grayson RodriguezLAA5.05226
Mitch Farris (L)LAA1.02331

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 3 · HOU 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 55%, LAA 45% · Updated Jul 29

Expected margin
HOU by 0.5
Expected score
HOU 4.8 – 4.3 LAA
Expected total
9.2
AstrosThe matchupAngels
−120Our fair odds+120
4.8Expected runs4.3
−0.02Power rating−0.26
4.6Runs / game4.3
5.0Allowed / game4.9
8.1Hits / game8.0
1.37Home runs / game1.07
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
54−55Season record42−66
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · LAA chance
Our model fair54.5%45.5%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros−12055%−13757.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12045%+11446.7%———
SpreadHOU by 0.5
HOUHouston Astros−0.5our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 0.5 expected
Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byLAA wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more40%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more30%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUHayden Wesneski SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 8 Kstarted
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 9.45 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·LAA
Jul 28 at LAA
last game
Jul 28 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 108+ games
HOU·LAA
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.26
4.6
runs / game
4.3
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.9
54−55
season record
42−66
26−27
home record
24−30
28−28
away record
18−36
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.0
1.37
home runs / game
1.07
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.41
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

HOU · LAA · 123 days
Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
Jul 28at LAAHOU 3 − 2
Jul 27at LAAHOU 6 − 4
Jun 10at LAALAA 3 − 2
Jun 9at LAALAA 10 − 1
Jun 8at LAAHOU 5 − 4
Mar 29at HOUHOU 9 − 7
Mar 28at HOUHOU 11 − 9
Mar 27at HOULAA 6 − 2
Mar 26at HOULAA 3 − 0
Sep 28, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 2

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jul 28at LAA3 − 2W
Jul 27at LAA6 − 4W
Jul 26at CHW3 − 12L
Jul 25at CHW4 − 1W
Jul 24at CHW9 − 5W
Jul 22vs MIA5 − 2W
Jul 21vs MIA5 − 3W
Jul 20vs MIA8 − 5W
Jul 19vs BAL2 − 5L
Jul 18vs BAL2 − 4L

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 28vs HOU2 − 3L
Jul 27vs HOU4 − 6L
Jul 26at SF4 − 3W
Jul 25at SF2 − 9L
Jul 24at SF6 − 7L
Jul 22vs STL0 − 1L
Jul 21vs STL5 − 1W
Jul 20vs STL3 − 2W
Jul 19vs DET3 − 2W
Jul 18vs DET0 − 7L