bayesRatings

Giants at Padres

MLB · Sunday, Aug 2 · 3:10 PM CT · Petco Park · Final SF 4 – SD 5
← MLB / Aug 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000210010472
SD04001000581
Team box
SF·SD
7
hits
8
2
home runs
1
2
walks
5
8
strikeouts
9
165
pitches thrown
164
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jackson MerrillSD2-3112
Rafael DeversSF1-3211
Osleivis BasabeSF1-3111
Jake CronenworthSD1-5002
Ty FranceSD2-4200
Luis CampusanoSD1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Landen Roupp (L)SF4.26546
Kyle HartSD3.01002
Griffin Canning (W)SD2.02100
Adrian Morejon (S)SD1.10003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +4
SF +4
123456789
largest lead: SD 4 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 45%, SD 55% · Updated Aug 2

Expected margin
SD by 0.5
Expected score
SD 4.3 – 3.8 SF
Expected total
8.2
GiantsThe matchupPadres
+122Our fair odds−122
3.8Expected runs4.3
−0.09Power rating+0.05
4.2Runs / game4.2
4.7Allowed / game4.3
8.6Hits / game7.7
1.12Home runs / game1.08
2.6Walks drawn / game3.4
47−64Season record57−54
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · SD chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12245%+10947.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−12255%−13156.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.5
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.5our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.5 expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more39%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more29%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 10 Kstarted
SDKyle Hart RP · last 3 starts: 5.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·SD
Aug 1 at SD
last game
Aug 1 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 111+ games
SF·SD
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.2
runs / game
4.2
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.3
47−64
season record
57−54
26−27
home record
31−25
21−37
away record
26−29
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.6
hits / game
7.7
1.12
home runs / game
1.08
2.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.65
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

SF · SD · 127 days
San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 6−4
Aug 1at SDSD 6 − 5
Jul 31at SDSD 7 − 0
Jul 30at SDSF 4 − 1
May 6at SFSD 5 − 1
May 5at SFSD 10 − 5
May 4at SFSF 3 − 2
Apr 1at SDSD 7 − 1
Mar 31at SDSF 9 − 3
Mar 30at SDSF 3 − 2
Aug 21, 2025at SDSD 8 − 4

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 1at SD5 − 6L
Jul 31at SD0 − 7L
Jul 30at SD4 − 1W
Jul 29vs MIL16 − 3W
Jul 28vs MIL2 − 8L
Jul 27vs MIL3 − 0W
Jul 26vs LAA3 − 4L
Jul 25vs LAA9 − 2W
Jul 24vs LAA7 − 6W
Jul 22at KC4 − 5L

SD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Aug 1vs SF6 − 5W
Jul 31vs SF7 − 0W
Jul 30vs SF1 − 4L
Jul 29vs COL3 − 1W
Jul 28vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 26at MIA5 − 3W
Jul 25at MIA7 − 2W
Jul 24at MIA4 − 2W
Jul 23at ATL5 − 6L
Jul 22at ATL6 − 7L